1、 Price quotation
According to the data of business news agency, the cotton market fluctuated downward in May, with 15897 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15760 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 0.86% and up 33.38% year on year.
2、 Market analysis
Domestic: at the beginning of this month, the news of additional quota issuance came to the ground on the evening of April 30. The amount of cotton import sliding allowance tax quota issued this time is 700000 tons, all of which are non-state trade quotas. The news will help the textile and garment foreign trade companies to receive orders, reduce the cost of raw material procurement, and improve the competitiveness of products. The cotton market will rise accordingly. In the middle of the month, the executive meeting of the State Council required that “effectively deal with the rapid rise of commodity prices and its associated effects”, and the exchanges implemented a number of measures, such as increasing the margin ratio of multiple futures trading, to ensure the smooth operation of the market. The domestic cotton price fell with the rise of the commodity market, and the market remained weak at the end of the month.
In April, China’s cotton imports were 230000 tons, an increase of 92% over the same period last year. In the year of 20 / 21, China’s total imports were 2.17 million tons, an increase of 90% over the same period last year. At the end of April, the total turnover inventory of cotton in China was about 3229700 tons, with a month on month decrease of 446300 tons, which was slightly larger than that of last month and lower than 210300 tons in the same period of last year.
International: U.S. inflation data soared to a 12 year high, adding up to the Palestine Israel conflict, which led to the fall of oil prices and the improvement of weather in Texas, which dragged down the international cotton price to fall significantly. 7 international cotton price index (SM) 98.76 cents / pound; On the 28th, the international cotton price index (SM) was 94.84 cents / pound, down 3.92 cents / pound; On the 7th, the international cotton price index (m) was 94.98 cents / pound, while on the 28th, the international cotton price index (m) was 91.47 cents / pound, down 3.51 cents / pound. ICAC’s global production and demand forecast in May is positive. In the year of 20 / 21, the global consumption is 25 million tons, the output is expected to be 24.6 million tons, and the final inventory is 22.14 million tons.
Futures: on May 6, the settlement price of zhengmian main contract 2109 was 15800 yuan / ton, while on May 31, the settlement price of zhengmian main contract was 15430 yuan / ton, down 370 yuan / ton.
3、 Downstream industry chain
Recently, the cotton futures market fell, the market wait-and-see mood increased, the current cotton yarn enterprises are still in a low inventory state, strong price will. With the arrival of the off-season of cotton consumption in summer, the willingness of traders and ginners to ship increased, the import of cotton yarn increased, and the orders of downstream textile enterprises were general. The atmosphere of grey cloth market was relatively light in the early stage, and some orders were “green and yellow”. The cotton textile factories were short of large orders and stable orders, and they paid attention to the orders of textile enterprises in the later stage. According to statistics, as of May 28, yarn inventory of textile enterprises in major regions of the country was 10.2 days, down 0.6 days from last week, and down 5.6% month on month. The data showed that the prosperity index of China’s cotton textile industry in April was 49.20, which was lower than that in March. The raw material inventory index in April was 48.67, down 1.52 from March.
With the recovery of the epidemic situation and orders, it can support the cotton to walk out of the volatile rising market, and the early cotton production reduction expectation is not reflected in the cotton futures market. In the short term, the cotton price will maintain a weak shock situation under the lack of positive support. In the long term, the orders from Europe, the United States and Japan are likely to overflow again in the second and third quarters, and the cotton may form a good situation.
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