Price trend:
According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market weakened in the first week of August, and the spot prices of some brands decreased. As of August 6, the average price of the mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 17700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.56% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year increase of 38.82%.
Factor analysis:
In terms of raw material styrene, the domestic spot price has decreased greatly recently. Previously, the far-end cost was dominated by the finishing and operation of crude oil chemical chain, and the cost of styrene was generally supported. In the short term, the industry is expected to increase supply. At the same time, due to cost pressure, the industry load has slightly callback this week. Recently, the direct upstream ethylene and pure benzene have fallen in price, and the cost side of styrene is bearish. In terms of demand, the main terminals followed up slowly, and the inventory of some ports increased. Multiple bad news led to the decline of styrene price at the beginning of the month. It is expected that styrene may fall more or rise less in the near future.
Upstream butadiene: due to the overall increase in the butadiene market in the early stage, the domestic spot price was corrected at a high level in the first week of August. The inquiry intention of terminal enterprises continues to weaken, and the focus of spot price continues to decline. In addition, the recent resumption and production of the industry coexist, and the supply side performance is empty. Although the external market is strong, it has not yet reached the export window price. In addition, the rebound of public health events has also caused some circulation resistance and increased supply pressure. Butadiene market is expected to continue its weak trend.
Most of the upstream market weakened, and the cost side support of ABS was weakened. In terms of supply, the low resumption of work last month still increased the on-site supply, and the inventory of finished products still showed an upward trend recently. In addition, the market demand follow-up is insufficient. Although the profitability of the industrial chain tends to be concentrated in ABS, the cost pressure exists at the same time. With the increase of shipment resistance, the spot price fell locally.
Future forecast:
Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS weakened in early August, the upstream trend was poor, and the support for ABS cost was weakened. The supply side support is gradually weakened due to the overall high load of the industry. At present, the demand of terminal enterprises is general. Under the stalemate of on-site offer, local prices have fallen secretly, and the mentality of operators has changed to cautious wait-and-see. The actual trading has decreased, and it is expected that the recent ABS spot market may be deadlocked.
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