Summary of spot price trend of precious metals
According to the data of business agency, on February 11, the average early price of silver market was 4762.33 yuan / kg, down 0.29%, which was 0.64% lower than the average early price of spot market price of 4793 yuan / kg before the festival (January 31).
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On February 11, the spot market price of gold was 374.21 yuan / g, down 0.48%, up 0.31% from the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the holiday (January 31).
Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence and the trend is basically the same. Gold prices have been relatively strong recently.
Price trend of precious metals and crude oil
News of interest rate hike policy
According to the data of the U.S. Department of labor, the year-on-year increase of U.S. CPI in January expanded to 7.5%, higher than the market expectation, and the core CPI increased by 6% year-on-year, both the largest increase since 1982.
After the data came out, the yield of 10-year US bonds broke the 2% mark for the first time in two and a half years. The market predicts that the Fed is more than 50% likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in March, and will raise interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of July. According to the data released at the same time, the adjusted average hourly salary in January decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, the 10th consecutive month.
In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 223000, a decrease of 16000 compared with the previous week, the third consecutive week of decline. As of the week of January 29, the number of people who renewed their claims for unemployment benefits was flat at 1.62 million.
US data strengthened market expectations for the fed to start raising interest rates. Federal Reserve Balkin: conceptually, he is open to raising interest rates by 50 basis points
Bank of Thailand: Thailand’s monetary policy does not follow other countries. The spillover effect of the Fed’s interest rate hike is limited.
Domestic monetary policy news
According to the central bank data released yesterday, at the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) was 243.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, estimated at 9.2% and 9% respectively. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 61.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. Excluding the influence of the wrong timing factor ① of the Spring Festival, M1 increased by about 2% year-on-year. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 10.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. The net cash invested in the month was 1.54 trillion yuan.
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China’s social financing scale increased by 6170 billion yuan in January, with an estimated 5385 billion yuan, compared with 2368.2 billion yuan. At the end of January, the stock of social financing scale in China was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.
In January, China increased RMB loans by 3980 billion yuan, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year; It is expected to be 3700 billion yuan, compared with 1131.8 billion yuan. In terms of sub sectors, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan; Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 178.8 billion yuan; Loans from non banking financial institutions decreased by 141.7 billion yuan.
Future forecast
The expectation of raising interest rates in the near future still exists, suppressing interest free assets and putting pressure on the price of precious metal silver. However, geopolitical news triggered a certain rise in risk aversion. It is expected that the price of precious metals will still be in the stage of upward weakness and weak consolidation in the short term.
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