Data monitoring showed that on February 24, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate slightly. The opening price of the main contract was 14030 yuan / ton, the settlement price was 14085 yuan / ton, the highest price was 14230 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 13965 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 14070 yuan / ton, up 0.29% from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 238900 and the position is 253700. The spot price is adjusted with the offer, and the adjustment range is maintained at about 100 yuan / ton; The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 13312 yuan / ton, up about 100 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.
Key points of analysis: on the supply side, the current natural rubber supply is about to be in the lowest valley of the year, and the Southeast Asian production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, but China has not yet cut it; On the demand side, the start-up of tire enterprises gradually picked up after the year. It is reported that the manufacturer’s resumption time is ahead of schedule this year, and its purchase demand for natural rubber continues to recover. On the inventory side, Qingdao’s inventory continues to increase. Statistics show that it has reached 350000 tons so far, of which the increase of dark rubber ring is significant; According to market news, the warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber and the cumulative inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao narrowed in the previous period. Latest industry news: on February 24, Thailand’s State Council spokesman tanakong revealed that the prime minister and Defense Minister General Bayu was satisfied with the rising trend of rubber prices in 2022, and it is expected that rubber exports could exceed 4.218 million tons worldwide; Tanagung said that general Bayu urged all government units to actively follow up the implementation of the projects formulated by the prime minister and the government, and continue to take care of the people in all walks of life, especially in the aspects of crops and agricultural economy, such as rubber, an important cash crop in Thailand; With the continuous stability of rubber prices, the price difference of rubber farmers subsidized by the government’s “rubber price guarantee plan” has been reduced, and the survey found that the majority of rubber farmers are very satisfied with the plan. Even so, general Bayu still ordered all relevant units to implement various subsidy plans, including the rubber price guarantee plan, in order to solve the problems and impacts affecting the general public.
Future forecast: the demand for natural rubber procurement is picking up, but it will take time for large-scale improvement; Although the growth rate of spot inventory has narrowed, the upward momentum of the market will still be suppressed. It is generally expected that under the background that the downstream demand continues to rebound in the low period of annual supply, natural rubber is expected to receive strong support in the medium term and the trend of small fluctuation in the short term is expected to continue.
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