From June 3rd to June 12th, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell, with an initial market average price of 447020 yuan/ton. As of June 12th, the market average price was 410940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.07%.
Since June, the main contract of Shanghai tin has repeatedly turned back in the range of 390000 to 440000 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated within a wide range this week, with extremely fast direction switching and broad fluctuations being the core color of June.
Supply side
The resumption of tin mining in the Wa State of Myanmar has significantly fallen short of expectations. As of now, due to multiple factors such as operational restrictions, material approvals, and the arrival of the rainy season, the production capacity of the Manchurian tin mine has only been restored to 40% to 50% of its pre mining capacity; The rainy season from May to July further suppresses open-pit mining and transportation, resulting in limited incremental space in the short term. In April, China imported 5678 physical tons of tin ore from Myanmar, a decrease of 22% compared to the previous month, which was only about 36% of the monthly average level before the shutdown. On the Democratic Republic of Congo side, about 6% of tin exports from Bisie mine are obstructed. Indonesia’s refined tin exports in April decreased by over 50% compared to the previous month, and the increase in mineral tax rates to 20% has pushed up long-term costs. Multiple tightening measures on the supply side have established a rigid bottom support for tin prices.
demand side
AI computing power hardware drives tin demand growth, accounting for about 10%, with high price tolerance and clear long-term support. In terms of traditional demand, lead-acid batteries have entered the off-season, production and sales of photovoltaics and new energy vehicles have slowed down, exports of tinplate have significantly declined, and the recovery of consumer electronics is moderate. High priced tin suppresses spot purchases of solder materials, while downstream rigid purchases dominate and there is a weak willingness to replenish inventory. The demand for tin supports the bottom but does not chase up prices, putting upward pressure on tin prices.
comprehensive analysis
As of now, the tin price has gone through an extreme trend of “hitting the top, trampling, and rebounding”. In the short term, it has entered a tug of war between the suppression of the moving average and the bottoming out of demand, with volatility still the main theme; In the medium to long term, tight fundamentals and AI demand still support the upward shift of the price center, but in the short term, inventory and macro pressures need to be digested.
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