According to the monitoring, on February 28, the opening price of the main contract was 13955 yuan / ton, the settlement price was 13885 yuan / ton, the highest price was 13970 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 13815 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 13870 yuan / ton, down 185 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume is 188300 hands and the position is 26.10 hands. The spot price is adjusted with the offer, down by about 50 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 13114 yuan / ton on the 28th, down about 56 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.
Key points of analysis: on the macro level, the recent escalation of geographical conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and the rise of macro risk sentiment have exacerbated the market’s concern about the interruption of energy supply, and the international oil price has risen. On the supply side, as the Southeast Asian production areas enter the production reduction period, the supply of natural rubber will be at the lowest point of the year, and it is expected that the output this year will be generally lower than that of last year: recent reports from Thailand show that the total output of Thailand in the first quarter of 2022 will be 6.35% lower than that of 2021, and it is expected that the output will be reduced by about 387000 tons and 142000 tons in February and March due to the impact of the cut-off period and defoliation. At present, China is still in the period of stopping cutting. It is reported that the weather in Yunnan is good recently, and the cutting is expected to be earlier than last year. On the demand side, the start-up of tire enterprises picked up after the year, and the demand for semi steel tires was better than that of all steel tires. It is reported that the manufacturer’s resumption time was earlier this year, and its purchase demand for natural rubber gradually recovered. However, the latest statistics show that the operating rate last week was lower than that of the previous week, which affected its enthusiasm for natural rubber purchase demand. On the inventory side, Qingdao’s inventory continued to increase, but the growth rate slowed down. The data showed that as of February 20, the total inventory of natural rubber bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 369100 tons, an increase of 5.52% month on month. According to market news, the cumulative range of natural rubber Warehouse Receipt Inventory and natural rubber spot inventory has narrowed recently.
Future forecast: the international situation is uncertain, and its impact on bulk commodities continues. The supply side is gradually favorable, while the downstream procurement has warmed up, but the volume has not been significantly improved. The spot of the port on the inventory side continues to increase, and the growth rate of single orders slows down. Combined with the recent trend of crude oil, under the background of the continuous reduction of supply pressure, the natural rubber market at a phased low has strong upward momentum in the medium term, but the demand promotion has not increased on a large scale, and the short-term weak fluctuation trend is expected to continue.
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