The monitoring shows that the natural rubber commodity index on March 11 was 39.06, down 0.71 points from yesterday, down 60.94% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 43.18% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020.
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Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in the second week of March 2022
Monitoring showed that in the second week of March, domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in China’s East China market rose first and then fell. The mainstream market reported about 13130 yuan / ton on the 7th and 13170 yuan / ton on the 11th, with a weekly increase of 0.3%; Among them, the highest price point of this week was 13480 yuan / ton on the 9th, and the lowest price point was 12970 yuan / ton on the weekend. The maximum weekly amplitude was 3.93%.
Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices in the second week of March 2022
Macro analysis: on the macro level, the oil price in the domestic ine market fell sharply on Friday, and the main contract of SC crude oil plunged 7.96% to close at 683.0 yuan / barrel. On Wednesday and Thursday, the international oil price fell sharply for two consecutive trading days. Pull the inner disc downward. US inflation reached a new high, with CPI rising by 7.9% year-on-year in February. The intensification of inflation made the market worried that the Fed’s interest rate hike process was accelerated and the risk aversion was negative. The US inflation reached a new high, which made the market worried that the Fed’s interest rate hike process was accelerated and the risk aversion was negative; The high oil price in Russia and Ukraine will continue to suppress oil reserves and reduce the risk of profit taking. At the same time, the IEA said that the oil price in Russia will continue to be high and the oil price in Ukraine will continue to be high; In the future, it is predicted that in the short term, the oil price is still high and volatile due to the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the medium-term supply shortage is expected to be difficult to change, and the oil price still has the power of action.
Figure 4: Weekly K-bar chart of natural rubber market since March 2022
Industry analysis: in March, natural rubber continued to fluctuate and the range increased. On the macro level, affected by the geopolitical factors of Russia and Ukraine, the international crude oil continued to soar and fell sharply recently. On Friday, the oil price in the domestic ine market fell sharply. The main contract of SC crude oil plummeted by 7.96% to close at 683.0 yuan / barrel. On Wednesday and Thursday, the international oil price fell sharply for two consecutive trading days, driving the decline of the internal market. Rubber was greatly boosted by market speculation this week, and turned around and continued to decline in the second half of the week. In terms of industry, the supply side: the global supply is at the lowest point of the year. The weather conditions in China are good, and it is expected that the Yunnan production area will open soon; Demand side: due to the epidemic situation and the shortage of automobile chips, the automobile industry continues to be depressed, the downstream demand of tire enterprises is insufficient and the cost pressure increases, the factory production enthusiasm is insufficient, and the demand for natural rubber is worse than that in previous years; According to the data, in the week of March 3, the domestic operating rate of all steel tires was 57.48% (+ 4.7%), and the domestic operating rate of semi steel tires was 60.39% (+ 5.1%); In terms of inventory: the import volume of domestic ports decreased last week, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. However, due to the relatively weak downstream demand, the inventory delivery was slow, and the overall spot inventory continued to increase; Domestic production areas are about to be cut, and the subsequent inventory pressure increases faster.
Industry hot spots: 1. Data show that in the first two months of 2022, Vietnam exported 108000 tons of natural rubber, a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year compared with 107000 tons last year. Vietnam exported 189000 tons of mixed rubber, down 1% from 191000 tons last year. Vietnam exported 13000 tons of natural rubber to China, down 32% year-on-year from 19000 tons last year. Vietnam exported 189000 tons of mixed rubber to China, up 2.2% year-on-year from 185000 tons last year.
2. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on March 7, China imported 1.193 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) from January to February 2022, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. The import volume in the same period in 2021 was 1.08 million tons.
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3. According to the data released by the Federation of passenger cars on March 8, the retail sales of passenger car market reached 1.246 million in February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month on month decrease of 40.0%. The overall trend of retail sales in February was strong. Under the unfavorable situation that this year’s Spring Festival is 12 days earlier than last year, a total of 3.324 million vehicles were retailed from January to February, 60000 less than that in 21 years, and the overall trend is good.
4. In January 2022, the United States imported 23.65 million tires, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% and a month on month decrease of 1.2%. Among them, the import of passenger tires increased by 4.4% year-on-year to 13.52 million, with a month on month decrease of 2.5%; The import of passenger car tyres increased by 1.9% year-on-year and 3.9% month on month to 4.55 million. In January, the United States imported 3.73 million tires from China, down 2.9% month on month and 9.9% year-on-year. From the data, the passenger tires decreased by 13% year-on-year and 10% month on month. Passenger car tyres increased by 9.6% year-on-year and 15.4% month on month. In addition, in January, the United States imported 4.44 million tires from Thailand, a month on month decrease of 8.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%. Among them, there were 2.69 million passenger tires, with a month on month decrease of 10.8% and 9.1% respectively; There were 1.33 million passenger car tires, an increase of 5.7% and 1.8% respectively on the same month on month basis. Thailand and China are major importers of American tires.
5. On March 11, China Automobile Industry Association released the latest data. According to the data, in February, the production and sales of automobiles were 1.813 million and 1.737 million respectively, down 25.2% and 31.4% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 20.6% and 18.7% respectively.
Figure 5: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2022
Future forecast: on the macro level, under the influence of the Fed’s interest rate hike and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international crude oil continues to rise and is expected to continue to rise. Influenced by the international situation and the trend of crude oil, the market speculation on natural rubber has a great impact on its market fluctuation. In fact, from the perspective of industry, at the moment of the lowest annual supply, the automobile industry is depressed, the downstream demand is weak, the recovery rate of tire enterprises is relatively slow, and the domestic spot stock continues to accumulate, and the rising power of the market is continuously suppressed. On the other hand, with the rising cost pressure of synthetic rubber and the rising cost of alternative rubber, the future market of natural rubber may be affected and changed to some extent.
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