Magnesium metal trend in July
In July, the daily average price of domestic magnesium ingots fluctuated between 23000-27000 yuan / ton, and the average price in the cycle was 24860.92 yuan / ton, with a rise and fall of -11.46%. This month, under the dilemma of sufficient supply and weak demand, the magnesium market is struggling, falling all the way to 24000 yuan / ton. In the face of oversupply, magnesium plants choose to stop production for maintenance to relieve the pressure. Considering that there is basically no profit or even loss, the factory’s price stabilization mood is more and more obvious, but the downstream demand is still bleak, and the magnesium price has to be lowered.
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According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of July 29, the tax included spot exchange in the magnesium ingot Market was 23166.67 yuan / ton, down about 3000 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, down 11.46%, up 11.38% from the same period last year.
Market analysis
Slight increase in exports
According to customs statistics, the export of magnesium ingots in June was 25285.7 tons, with a month on month increase of 8.1% and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%; The export of magnesium alloy was 12276 tons, with a month on month decrease of 6.1% and a year-on-year increase of 76.7%; The export of magnesium powder was 5686.7 tons, with a month on month decrease of 7.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%.
Increased maintenance and reduced production
In June, China’s magnesium ingot production was 81265 tons, a month on month decrease of 5.31%, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, and the operating rate was 69.76%. In June, due to the high temperature maintenance in summer, due to the weather, the production efficiency was reduced, the labor cost was increased, and the weak demand side, some magnesium plants took the initiative to stop production due to the lack of funds, and the output of magnesium ingots was significantly reduced.
From the perspective of raw material relationship
Ferrosilicon fell 11.04% in July
In terms of ferrosilicon, the price of ferrosilicon first fell and then rose in July. As of July 29, the mainstream quotation in Ningxia fluctuated in the range of 7600-7800 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, the price of ferrosilicon fell sharply, and the market quotation was lower than the expectations of all parties, approaching the production cost line. The information of market participants was poor. Ferrosilicon manufacturers began to reduce production and overhaul intensively. The large-scale production reduction in the middle and late period made the spot stop falling to a certain extent, and the futures disk also fluctuated and rebounded, Coupled with a new round of steel bidding at the end of the month, the price of ferrosilicon is gradually repaired.
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Coke fell 26.67% in July
In terms of coke, the coke market experienced three rounds of increases and decreases in July, with a reduction of 600 yuan / ton in the month. The negative feedback of downstream steel enterprises on limiting production suppressed the coke price. Coking enterprises suffered serious losses, and coke enterprises further increased their efforts to limit production, with most enterprises limiting production by 30-50%. At present, under the two weak patterns of coke supply and demand, it is expected that the overall operation will remain weak.
Aftermarket forecast
In general, under the condition of light demand in the magnesium market, downstream customers have significantly reduced the price compared with the price, and the raw material cost price has weakened, magnesium ingots lack positive factors, and the downward pressure on magnesium prices is still there. Considering that the price has reached the bottom, there is not much room for decline. It is expected that the magnesium market will be weak in the short term, and the price will be gradually repaired in mid and late August.
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