Trend chart of price difference between DOTP and DOP
| Sulfamic acid |
According to the data monitoring of the business association, DOTP and DOP are both plasticizer products, and they are competing products. The difference in price is small. Generally, the price difference is adjusted by fluctuations between 100-300 yuan. The DOTP price is slightly higher than the DOP price. However, this situation began to change in the middle of September. From the middle of September, the price difference between DOTP and DOP narrowed, and from October, the price difference reversed. The DOP price began to be higher than the DOTP price, with the lowest price difference of – 257.5 yuan on October 24. The main reason for the reversal of the price difference is that DOTP and DOP raw materials are different and the price of raw materials changes, resulting in a change in the proportion of DOTP and DOP raw material costs. The cost of DOP increases significantly and the cost of DOTP is relatively stable.
DOTP raw material price trend
DOTP raw materials mainly include isooctanol and PTA. In 2022, the price of isooctanol will fall and PTA will rise. Isooctanol is mainly used to produce plasticizer, and the amount of plasticizer used in PTA production is small. The cost of plasticizer raw materials is mainly affected by the price of isooctanol.
It can be seen from the comparison chart of DOTP and isooctanol price trends that the overall DOTP price trend in 2022 is highly positively related to the isooctanol price trend, and the DOTP raw material trend mainly depends on the isooctanol price trend. The price trend of isooctanol in 2022 can be divided into several stages. In the first and second quarters, the overall price of isooctanol was adjusted to a high level and fluctuated. In June, the price of isooctanol fell sharply; The trends of isooctanol and DOTP are basically the same in the first and second quarters, and isooctanol is highly positively correlated with DOTP; Since the middle of July, the difference between the two trends has increased, and the correlation between isooctanol and DOTP has weakened.
DOP raw material price trend
The raw materials of DOP mainly include isooctanol and phthalic anhydride. In 2022, the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall, while the price of phthalic anhydride will rise sharply. The cost of plasticizer raw materials is mainly affected by the price of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride. With the continuous increase of phthalic anhydride price, phthalic anhydride accounts for an increasing proportion of DOP’s raw material cost.
According to the price trend chart of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride of the business community, the price of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fluctuated and adjusted at a high level in the first and second quarters. In June, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, while the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly; On the whole, the trends of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride in the first and second quarters are basically the same. Since September, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, and the price of isooctanol has stabilized. Phthalic anhydride accounted for a sharp increase in the cost of DOP raw materials. In September and October, DOP costs rose, DOP profits decreased, and DOP prices rose.
Future market expectation
According to DOTP data analysts of the business association, since September and October, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, leading to the rise of plasticizer DOP cost, while the price of DOTP raw material isooctanol was relatively stable in September and October. The growth of DOTP cost was limited, and the change of raw material cost was different, leading to the DOP price higher than the DOTP price, and the price difference between the two was reversed. Both are competitors of plasticizers. As an environment-friendly plasticizer, DOTP’s production capacity and market share have continued to rise in recent years, greatly occupying the market share of DOP. Due to its environmental protection characteristics, the price is generally slightly higher than DOP. Since September, the cost of DOP has increased sharply, leading to a higher DOP price than DOTP, but this price trend is difficult to sustain. With the decline in the price of phthalic anhydride, the DOP price is bound to decline significantly. Because of its environmental protection characteristics, When customers choose DOTP and DOP, price is not an absolute factor. In the future, the DOTP and DOP prices may reverse again, and the DOTP price will again be higher than the DOP price.
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