Recent urea price trend
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As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2530.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2506.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.95%, 18.17% YoY. On October 23, the urea commodity index was 116.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 109.64% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Average cost support, weak downstream demand and weak urea supply
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in China fell slightly this week.
From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell slightly, from 6370.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6332.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.60%, 7.88% lower than the same period last year; The price of anthracite was consolidated at a high level, and Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) was 1850 yuan/ton. Upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the price support for urea was average. The price of melamine at the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 8250.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 0.20%.
In terms of demand, agricultural demand is small and industrial demand is weak. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.
Urea price may fall slightly
In late October, the domestic urea market may fall slightly. The urea analysts of the business community believed that the price of anthracite in the upstream of urea was consolidated at a high level, and the urea cost was well supported. However, the downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is weak, and the daily urea production has a downward trend. In the future, urea may decline in a narrow range.
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