Futures market: this week (1.3-1.6), staple fiber futures fell in shock. The main contract of short-fiber PF futures closed at 6954 on Friday, down 3.84% from last week’s closing price. The settlement price is 6936 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 3.86% to 5326, and the main ethylene glycol futures fell 2.00% to 4106.
Spot price: The spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber rose slightly this week. According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7332 yuan/ton on January 6, up 0.41% from Monday and 2.52% from the same period last year.
The market is worried that the weak global economic outlook may reduce the demand for crude oil. The crude oil inventory data to be released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday shows that the US crude oil inventory increased last week. In addition, there is news in the spot market that Saudi Arabia may reduce the price of crude oil sold to Asia to the lowest level in 15 months. This week, international oil prices fell sharply, and WTI crude oil futures in the United States fell by 8.40%, the lowest closing price in three weeks, and the largest one-day decline since September 23. The sharp drop in oil price dragged down the price of the whole polyester industry chain. This week, the crude oil price at the cost end of PTA was under pressure, the unit operation was slightly reduced, the downstream polyester load was slightly reduced, and the supply and demand sides were weakened. The supply pressure of ethylene glycol has been alleviated due to the centralized maintenance of some enterprises’ devices recently, but the demand for ethylene glycol has weakened near the Spring Festival, and the port inventory is relatively high.
Short fiber was relatively resistant to decline in December under the support of macro benefits and relatively strong costs. In the middle of January, the load of the expansion staple fiber plant was increased, and the plan to restart the long spinning staple fiber plant increased, and the pressure on the accumulation of staple fiber increased. Influenced by the traditional off-season and the rising number of people infected by the epidemic, the cotton mills and weaving factories are seriously short of workers. They have been on holiday before the Spring Festival, and the operating rate has declined rapidly. The support for staple fiber is limited.
Short-term staple fiber prices are expected to be weak and volatile. In the future, we will focus on the trend of crude oil price, the national epidemic situation and the holiday of the industrial chain.