1、 Price trend
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Business Agency: Domestic maleic anhydride market fluctuated and rose in March
According to data from Business News Agency, as of March 31, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7740.00 yuan/ton (tax included), up 2.65% from 7540.00 yuan/ton on March 1.
The maleic anhydride commodity index stood at 72.91 on March 31, up 0.37 points from yesterday, down 56.19% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and up 42.46% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Most of the three domestic benzoic anhydride markets continue to be shut down. In the first ten days of March, downstream resin demand was stable, and some maleic anhydride manufacturers continued to shut down for maintenance. The manufacturers temporarily had no pressure to ship, and the price of maleic anhydride continued to rise. In late March, international crude oil fell sharply, while the upstream n-butane price continued to decline. Downstream resin costs and terminal performance were under pressure. There was limited enthusiasm for maleic anhydride replenishment, and the maleic anhydride market declined. As of the 31st day, the solid anhydride in Shandong region was about 7300 yuan/ton, that in Jiangsu region was about 7300 yuan/ton, and that in South China was about 7800 yuan/ton.
In early March, the price of crude oil rose, and China, as the largest importer and second largest consumer of crude oil, had a profound impact on the oil market. The recent strong performance of macroeconomic data has further strengthened market bullish expectations. The collapse of a Silicon Valley bank in the United States in mid March, coupled with the disappointing inflation report data from the United States, has raised concerns about financial risks in the market. In addition, the jitters of Credit Suisse have hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, as well as the negative impact of a more than expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and a decrease in China’s crude oil imports, which has subsequently dragged down crude oil prices. In the second half of the year, Iraq stopped exporting crude oil from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, while the impact of risks on the banking industry in Europe and the United States weakened, and the easing of supply and demand concerns drove up oil prices.
In March, the overall hydrogenation benzene market rose first, then fell, and finally experienced a narrow volatility trend. The market price fluctuated along with the trend of the pure benzene market. As of the 30th, the factory price in the main production area remained at 7150 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price in East China was at 7250-7300 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, recently, the profits of hydrogenation benzene enterprises are still remaining, and the operation is relatively active, with the operation rate maintaining a normal level. In terms of demand, downstream procurement is just needed, and the overall demand has not changed much. The recent trend mainly follows the fluctuations in the industrial chain.
3、 Aftermarket Forecast
The maleic anhydride product analyst of the Business Society believes that the current domestic maleic anhydride market has a serious loss in the benzene oxidation process, with factories being shut down for maintenance, and there are few circulating sources of goods in the market; At the end of March, the upstream n-butane price of maleic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded, supporting the market cost of maleic anhydride; However, there are currently replenishment positions in the downstream market, with caution in pursuing higher prices and focusing on purchasing as needed. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may be dominated by consolidation in the near future.
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