Price trend
| sulphamic acid |
Recently, the domestic ABS market has declined, and spot prices have often declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11600 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.17% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
On the supply side: Last week, the high load situation in the ABS industry saw a slight increase, with some companies experiencing an increase in operating rates. As a result, the overall operating rate of domestic ABS has increased to around 98%, almost fully operating. On site spot supply is abundant, competition intensifies, and supply side pressure is high. The inventory of domestic enterprises has increased, and the main inventory pressure is concentrated in the middle reaches. Merchants are under pressure, and the prices are falling.
In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been weak recently. The market fluctuation of raw material acrylonitrile is relatively narrow. Last week, there was a slight improvement in cost support, while supply and demand remained stable. Upstream inventory pressure was not significant, and there was a strong willingness to increase prices. Downstream demand was mainly in demand, with stable demand. The current propylene market is in a stalemate, and with downstream procurement continuing to follow up, it is expected that the propylene market will have a strong trend in the near future.
Recently, the domestic butadiene market has slightly declined, and the market atmosphere is relatively empty due to the news of low prices in the external market and the reduction of Sinopec’s supply prices. The lack of sustained support from the demand side on the market, coupled with some inquiries indicating a clear intention to lower prices, has led to a slight weakening of the market focus. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.
Last week, the styrene market slightly declined. International oil prices have fallen, with poor cost support. There is sufficient domestic supply, but it is rumored that some companies have maintenance plans in the near future and there are expectations of supply reduction. The news suggests that the market has formed a certain recovery, but the market’s long short entanglement pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the short-term adjustment of the styrene market may be relatively small.
In terms of demand: Recently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have shown average enthusiasm for stocking up. The manufacturer’s mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, and overall demand improvement is limited. The actual trading volume on the market was weak, and the smoothness of goods delivery decreased.
Future Market Forecast
Recently, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials has been weak, which has weakened the cost support for ABS. The petrochemical plant is almost fully operating, and the market supply of goods continues to be abundant. Poor demand side support, overall maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern. The high inventory of mid stream channel merchants has increased, and the mentality of merchants has weakened, resulting in frequent operations of selling profits and taking orders. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.
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