In July 2026, the domestic toluene market prices showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with an overall upward trend. On July 1st, the domestic toluene market price was 5741 yuan/ton, and on July 30th, the market price was 6600 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price increase of 14.96% during the period. This month, the toluene market was affected by multiple factors such as cost support and adjustment of supply and demand patterns, resulting in a significant shift in the price center. Although there was a slight decline at the end of the month, the overall increase was significant, and the market trading atmosphere changed periodically with price fluctuations.
Cost aspect:
The cost support role of the toluene market became prominent in July, becoming one of the core driving forces for price increases. Crude oil, as the upstream core raw material for toluene, has shown a strong and volatile price trend this month. Tightening supply and demand in the international crude oil market, as well as geopolitical factors, have boosted oil prices and driven the continuous increase in raw material costs for toluene production. Data shows that the upward trend in upstream raw material prices has directly pushed up the production costs of toluene enterprises. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, providing a solid cost foundation for the rise in toluene market prices. The strong support on the cost side lasted through the first and middle of July and was the key driving force behind the significant increase in toluene prices. As of July 29th, the settlement price of the September contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $84.46 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October contract is $88.09 per barrel.
Supply side:
In July, the overall supply side of the domestic toluene market was tight, which provided strong support for prices. This month, the operating rate of domestic toluene production enterprises’ facilities remained at a medium low level, and some refinery facilities underwent maintenance and load adjustments, resulting in a reduction in the spot supply of toluene in the market; At the same time, the port’s toluene inventory continues to operate at a low level, the market circulation of goods is limited, and the situation of tight spot resources continues. The tightening pattern of the supply side has led to insufficient spot circulation in the market, and the reluctance of merchants to sell is evident, further boosting the price of toluene and becoming an important supporting factor for the price increase in the toluene market in July.
Demand side:
As of July 30th, the execution price of Sinopec PX has been raised to 8500 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton from 7900 yuan/ton on June 30th. Currently, the price is uniformly implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The sustained rebound of PX from low levels in foreign markets has provided cost support, driving up domestic ex factory quotations. However, the recovery of downstream PTA and polyester market demand is limited, and the willingness of enterprises to pursue price increases is weak. Terminal procurement remains cautious, and it is difficult for the demand side to form a strong driving force.
International market: Asian PX rebounded from low levels in July, continuing the weak trend in June at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, FOB Korea rebounded to $1045-1047/ton and CFR China rose to $1066-1068/ton. The recovery of crude oil during the month brought cost support, and prices gradually recovered from the bottom, rising more than $86/ton compared to the end of June. However, downstream demand follow-up is weak, and the rebound is limited, and the market situation still depends on changes in crude oil trends.
The demand side of the toluene market showed differentiation in July, and market transactions steadily followed up with the support of essential needs. In the downstream industry, toluene is an important chemical raw material, and industries such as coatings, rubber, and pharmaceuticals maintain essential procurement. Although some downstream enterprises entered the traditional off-season at the end of the month, their procurement enthusiasm slightly decreased, and they mainly relied on on-demand procurement, resulting in a slowdown in market transactions. However, in the first and middle of the month, downstream industries started operating steadily, and the demand for centralized replenishment was released, driving an increase in toluene market transactions. Overall, the downstream demand for toluene in July remained stable, and the stable operation of the demand side played a role in bottoming out market prices, supporting the high price of toluene.
Market forecast:
In August, the domestic toluene market will continue to be dominated by multiple factors such as cost, supply and demand. On the supply side, the spot supply of toluene in the market may increase slightly, and the tight supply situation is expected to ease; In terms of demand, the off-season characteristics of downstream industries may further emerge, and market procurement demand may continue to be weak. Overall, it is expected that the market will mainly experience high-level fluctuations and narrow range adjustments, with overall prices fluctuating around the current range, with a focus on the trend of crude oil prices, refinery operations, and downstream demand recovery progress.
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