1、 Price trend
According to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 29th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7466.67 yuan/ton. In April, the price curve of cyclohexane showed a continuous upward trend. In April, the supply side of the cyclohexane market tightened, spot inventory remained scarce and operated at a low level. Factory equipment maintenance led to a decrease in production capacity, good downstream demand, positive market transaction atmosphere, and mainstream cyclohexane factory prices continued to rise, resulting in a stable and strong overall market trend.
2、 Market analysis
In April, the domestic market price of cyclohexane showed a continuous upward trend. Due to the influence of international crude oil prices, the upstream raw material pure benzene price of cyclohexane fluctuated in April. The overall price of pure benzene in April showed an upward trend, with good market demand and a shortage of spot supply. Inventory continued to operate at a low level, and the trading atmosphere on the market warmed up. The focus of negotiations was high, and the downstream procurement atmosphere was positive. In April, the production of cyclohexane decreased, and some enterprises underwent equipment maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in the supply of cyclohexane. This is the main reason for the price increase.
In terms of import and export: China’s total import of cyclohexane in March was 0.04 tons, a decrease of 95.67% compared to February’s import volume of 0.923 tons. The import amount in March was 3130 tons/US dollar, and the export amount in March was 4097.1 tons, a decrease of 47.23% compared to February’s import volume of 7763.58 tons. The export amount in February was 3995381 tons/US dollar. The main importing countries for cyclohexane in China are Germany and the United States, and the main exporting countries are Thailand. From the perspective of shipping and receiving areas, the export provinces of cyclohexane in China are mainly Fujian Province, Shandong Province, and Liaoning Province. Fujian Province has a large production capacity for cyclohexane in China and is also a major region for cyclohexane exports.
In terms of cost: In March, upstream pure benzene fluctuated and the overall market showed a downward trend, mainly due to the influence of crude oil prices. In March, pure benzene prices were in a weak consolidation stage. Starting from mid March, crude oil prices rose, and pure benzene had some support on the cost side. Cyclohexane provided strong support on the cost side, and the price continued to rise, showing a strong trend. In late March, crude oil prices returned to stability, and pure benzene prices were in a weak consolidation stage. Cyclohexane prices showed a weak and strong trend.
In terms of demand: In April, downstream product caprolactam prices first rose and then fell, with sufficient raw material inventory. Currently, the caprolactam market is gradually releasing maintenance plans, and the overall market operating rate is around 76%. Currently, the supply of spot goods has slightly decreased, and manufacturers have shown a reluctance to sell. However, in the week leading up to the end of the month, although there is some support on the cost side, supply has increased and inventory is running at a high level, while demand is insufficient and consumption is slow. The negative factors brought by supply and demand dominate, and the caprolactam market price has a weak downward trend.
3、 Future Market Forecast
Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that the current downstream market procurement atmosphere is positive, and the upstream pure benzene price is operating at a high level. There is still some support for the cost of cyclohexane in the short term. Currently, inventory is operating at a low level, and some enterprise facilities have not yet restarted. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will maintain a strong trend in the short term, with the mainstream price range being 7500 yuan/ton.
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