The price of raw materials has fallen, and the domestic natural rubber market has fallen from its high level

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of natural rubber in China has weakened recently (7.1-7.8). As of July 8th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.69% from 14557 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.


On the one hand, the supply of raw materials in domestic and foreign raw material production areas is gradually increasing, and the price of natural rubber raw materials has been falling all the way, causing cost drag on the domestic natural rubber market. As of July 8th, the price of Thai adhesive was 63.50 Thai baht/kg, a decrease from 70.45 Thai baht/kg at the end of June; As of the 8th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 13600 yuan/ton, significantly lower than 14500 yuan/ton at the end of June; The purchase price of all latex raw materials for glue production is around 13600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the end of June.


On the other hand, natural rubber inventories are slowly being depleted, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the overall market. As of July 7, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 493000 tons, a month on month decrease of 0.89%.


Downstream tire production is temporarily stable, with demand facing strong support from the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, resulting in a high price drop in natural rubber prices. As of July 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic tire enterprises is around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.2%.


Market forecast: The current domestic and foreign raw material supply is gradually increasing, and the high price of natural rubber raw materials is falling back; In addition, downstream tire companies are currently operating steadily and are cautious in purchasing high priced goods; Overall, the natural rubber market is expected to narrow down in the short term after a recent high decline.