According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 18th, the price of 0 # zinc was 22422 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the zinc price of 22888 yuan/ton on April 14th.
This week’s market analysis
This week, some domestic smelting enterprises’ originally planned maintenance arrangements have been delayed, resulting in the continuous release of supply side production capacity, steady increase in the supply of zinc ingots and other products, and price reductions.
Raw material end
The domestic output of zinc concentrate is steadily increasing, while the inflow scale of imported zinc concentrate has been reduced. In this context, it is necessary to closely monitor the arrival dynamics of zinc concentrate purchased at locked prices when the import window is opened in the early stage. Overall, the supply pattern of domestic zinc concentrate remained loose in April, and it is expected that there is still room for further increase in zinc concentrate processing fees.
Supply and demand side
The originally scheduled maintenance plans of some domestic smelters have been delayed, resulting in the continuous release of supply side production capacity and the continuous increase in the supply of zinc ingots and other products. At the same time, the extent of import losses is gradually narrowing, and the import window is showing signs of opening. Based on this speculation, there may be more imported zinc ingots entering the domestic market in the future.
On the demand side, zinc prices are in a relatively low range, and downstream companies have started to adopt a low price replenishment mode. Driven by this, the raw material inventory of zinc primary processing enterprises has rapidly risen to a relatively high level. In terms of the current production pace and order situation, these inventories are difficult to fully digest in the short term.
Inventory end
The total inventory of zinc ingots decreased compared to last week, while LME zinc inventory increased compared to last week.
comprehensive analysis
The current consumer market has not shown any significant signs of recovery, and the traditional peak consumption season is quietly coming to an end. In this situation, the enterprise is facing the dilemma of stockpiling raw materials in the short term, making it difficult to digest. At the same time, some domestic smelters have delayed their scheduled maintenance plans, resulting in a continuous release of supply side capacity and an increase in zinc supply. Under the shadow of a bearish fundamental pattern, zinc prices are expected to remain under pressure.
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