Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July
Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20596.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% from the market average price of 20786.67 yuan/ton on July 1.
Fundamental Overview
1、 Supply side: Limited incremental operation at high levels
The current operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the industry operating rate is close to 97%. The room for further improvement is very limited. However, there is still a slight increase in weekly operating capacity, and the overall production remains at high load. There is no obvious sign of contraction in the short-term supply side.
As the core raw material for electrolytic aluminum production, the pressure of oversupply of alumina is significant. Stimulated by the recovery of industry profits, alumina production capacity has been released to historical highs, domestic production is showing a trend of recovery, and total inventory is also continuously increasing. Although the alumina warehouse receipts are still at a low level in the short term, the problem of tight delivery capacity in Xinjiang is expected to be alleviated in August, which will suppress the speculative sentiment in recent months. In the long run, the trend of alumina accumulation is relatively clear.
2、 Demand side: off-season affects production and declines
At present, it is in the off-season of traditional consumption, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has declined. The overall pressure on aluminum production is low, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to take over at a high level is insufficient.
From the perspective of specific downstream industries, in the field of new energy vehicles, the retail sales of passenger cars in China increased by 15% year-on-year from July 1st to 27th, but decreased by 17% compared to the same period last month, indicating a weakening trend in demand compared to the previous month; In the field of photovoltaics, the overall output of photovoltaic modules in August showed limited month on month changes, and the driving force for aluminum demand was insufficient. Overall, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and spot transactions of aluminum ingots are average, putting pressure on spot price markups.
3、 Inventory side: Short term rebound with relatively low year-on-year growth
At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 514000 tons, an increase of 20000 tons from last Thursday, showing a trend of accumulated inventory; The spot inventory of aluminum bars is 158500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from last week, with relatively small fluctuations. Overall, although inventory has rebounded in the short term, it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, which has provided some support for aluminum prices.
4、 Policy and market sentiment: intertwining multiple factors
Domestically, the policy statement did not exceed expectations, and the sentiment of “anti involution” has eased. The long-term tone of “promotion fees and stable growth” remains unchanged, and the support for market sentiment is limited. At the same time, the statement of “governing disorderly competition in accordance with the law” in the alumina industry has intensified short-term market fluctuations.
On the overseas front, the Federal Reserve has remained inactive for five consecutive meetings, with two members supporting a rate cut. However, Powell did not provide clear guidance on the September rate cut, emphasizing the uncertainty of tariffs and inflation, and stating that the job market has not weakened and policy uncertainty still exists. However, the easing of tariffs between China and the United States and the IMF’s upward adjustment of growth expectations have boosted market optimism in the short term, but it is difficult to offset the suppression of domestic off-season demand.
5、 Price Expectations and Trading Strategies
In terms of spot aluminum ingot prices, they are supported by low inventory in the short term and maintain high volatility. The core fluctuation range can be focused on 20400-20900 yuan/ton; In the medium to long term, due to the suppression of demand during the off-season and the rebound of aluminum ingot inventory, it is expected that price fluctuations will be weak. However, due to the low year-on-year inventory, the space below is limited.
| http://www.sulfamic-acid.com |