According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber has first fallen and then slightly rebounded since September. As of September 15th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6471 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% from the beginning of the month. Insufficient cost support, but low processing fees have weakened the willingness of mainstream factories to actively reduce prices. By raising prices to maintain profit margins, it has provided favorable support for short fiber prices.
The gradual increase in OPEC+production in the international crude oil market has led to a decline in crude oil prices. As of September 12th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $62.69 per barrel, and the settlement price of the November Brent crude oil futures contract was $66.99 per barrel. OPEC maintains the tone of increasing production in October, and the risk of oversupply has increased. And with the traditional fuel peak season coming to an end and demand entering a turning point, the supply and demand pattern is showing a situation of oversupply, coupled with the current difficult geopolitical situation to intensify, crude oil prices may continue to weaken.
Since September, the domestic PTA market has slightly declined, with the average spot market price of PTA in East China at 4631 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.6% from the beginning of the month. Recently, maintenance facilities such as Hengli Huizhou and Xinfengming have been restarted in early September, partially improving the tight supply situation of PTA in China. The current industry operating rate is around 77%. PTA relies on operating to maintain inventory in the early stage, but it is difficult to continue in the later stage. There is also an expectation of new equipment being put into operation in October, so there is a continuous increase in domestic supply.
The demand for downstream spinning orders has rebounded compared to last month. Although the overall order volume is lower than expected, the improvement in news has boosted the mentality of industry players, and the purchase volume of polyester staple fibers has moderately increased. After entering the traditional “Golden Nine”, the sales performance of categories represented by thermal insulation fabrics is still acceptable, especially the home textile industry, which has contributed to some of the demand growth. Although there has been no significant improvement in the demand for fabric sampling in autumn and winter in some fabric factories, there is still a phenomenon of partial recovery, and the current market orders are still mainly scattered and small orders.
Business analysts believe that the incremental supply trend of PTA on the cost side continues, and the expected peak season of “Golden September” on the demand side has not yet arrived, resulting in slow increase in production for terminal enterprises. If there is no new positive boost, the short-term rise in the polyester staple fiber market may be difficult to continue.
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