Demand performance falls short of expectations, PTA prices are adjusted narrowly

The PTA factory’s plan to restart the equipment has been postponed, and there has been little change in overall demand. The cost side support is still acceptable. This week (September 15-19), the domestic PTA market experienced narrow fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the average market price of PTA in East China was 4631 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.01% from the beginning of the week.
On the one hand, Russia and Ukraine have triggered potential supply risks, especially with concerns about the supply of crude oil from a certain European country once again increasing. Coupled with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, international oil prices have risen recently, supporting PTA costs. As of September 18th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.26 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $66.92 per barrel.
PTA processing fees are still at a low level for the year, factories are operating at a loss, and the current domestic industry operating rate is around 76%. Recently, there are expectations of a restart of domestic facilities, but some PTA factories have added maintenance plans for October and November, which is positive for market sentiment.
On the demand side, there were not many changes in the polyester plant, with slight fluctuations in local loads, and the overall load rebounded to 91%. The terminal performance is lukewarm, and the traditional peak season terminal performance is not as expected. The order situation is average, and inventory is suppressing fabric prices. For example, the price of polyester filament has been lowered, and the inventory of raw materials has decreased. The pessimistic sentiment in the market is spreading.
Business analysts believe that in the short term, cost support is strong, but the expected increase in PTA supply side and downstream procurement enthusiasm are hindered. It is expected that the domestic PTA market will mainly experience weak fluctuations next week.