Cobalt prices have risen sharply this week
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on September 26th was 309300 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 12.47% compared to the cobalt price of 275000 yuan/ton on September 21st. The Democratic Republic of Congo has introduced a quota system, leading to an expected shortage of cobalt supply in the international market and a significant increase in cobalt prices.
Congo introduces quota system
The Strategic Mineral Market Supervision and Control Authority of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced on the 21st that the country will end the cobalt export ban implemented since February this year from October 15th, and will implement an export quota system on October 16th until further notice. For the remainder of this year, mining companies in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be allowed to export over 18000 tons of cobalt, with a maximum export volume of 96600 tons per year in 2026 and 2027. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has implemented a cobalt export quota system, resulting in a significant reduction in supply to the cobalt market in the country.
Expected shortage of supply in cobalt market
In the cobalt export quota system of the Democratic Republic of Congo, mining companies will be allowed to export over 18000 tons of cobalt from October to December 2025, with a maximum annual export volume of 96600 tons in 2026 and 2027. Compared to the cobalt export volume of nearly 250000 tons in 2024, the annual quota for 2026 is less than 40% of the production in 2024. The cobalt market in the Democratic Republic of Congo accounts for more than 70% of the global cobalt market supply. The quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo will lead to a shortage of cobalt market supply. Although cobalt projects in countries such as Indonesia and Australia have made up for some of the cobalt market supply shortage, their increased production capacity is far from enough to fill the supply gap in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It is expected that the global cobalt supply will face an annual shortfall of 50000 tons from 2026 to 2027.
Overview and Prospect
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the Democratic Republic of Congo has confirmed the introduction of an export quota system, and the production of cobalt projects in countries such as Indonesia and Australia continues to increase, making up for the shortage of cobalt market supply. However, overall, the expected shortage of cobalt market supply in the next three years is still high, and the driving force for cobalt price increase is increasing. The rise in cobalt prices will stimulate the market to seek alternatives. The vigorous promotion of cobalt recycling projects will make up for the shortage in the cobalt market, and new batteries will be launched in the market, which will seize the demand in the cobalt market in the future. Overall, there will be a shortage of supply in the cobalt market in the next two years, with a significant increase in cobalt prices. However, it is still uncertain whether cobalt prices can continue to rise. With the promotion of cobalt recycling and the construction of new cobalt projects in other countries, the shortage in the cobalt market may not meet expectations. The promotion and launch of new batteries will seize the demand in the cobalt market, and the overall supply-demand imbalance in the cobalt market may not meet expectations. The risk of overheating in the cobalt market is increasing as cobalt prices rise to 350000 yuan/ton, and caution is highest.
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