According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 17th to 21st (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port quotations fell from 2020 yuan/ton to around 1995 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.24% during the period, a month on month drop of 11.92%, and a year-on-year drop of 21.76%. Affected by factors such as reverse flow of port goods, the methanol inventory in ports has slightly decreased, but the high inventory continues to suppress the market, making it difficult for the methanol market in ports to improve, and the downward trend is mainly continuing.
As of the close on November 21st, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2601, opened at 2016 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2029 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2001 yuan/ton. It closed at 2004 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 7 yuan or 0.35% from the previous trading day’s settlement. Transaction volume 1085596, open position 1402474, daily increase position -25359.
On the cost side, coal inventory remains at a regular level, mainly for essential purchases, and prices continue to operate steadily, providing strong support on the cost side. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, the continuous external procurement of olefins in mainland China, coupled with downstream demand for rigid procurement, lacks the willingness to actively stockpile goods, and the strength of favorable factors is insufficient. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards negative factors.
On the supply side, the planned maintenance and reduction of methanol production facilities will decrease, while the number of recovery facilities will increase, resulting in an overall increase in market supply. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of November 20th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at 316.5-317.5 US dollars per ton; The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 88.5-89.5 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 259.5-260.5 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, the overall profitability of the upstream and downstream industrial chains is weak, and there is no obvious sign of contraction on the supply side, in the absence of substantial positive factors to support it. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is still mainly weak.
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