According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a sharp fluctuation trend recently. As of November 25th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 92266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15% from the high point of the week (November 19th), a month on month increase of 21.56%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.19%; The benchmark price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 90433 yuan/ton, up 21.99% month on month and 15.64% year-on-year.
The core driving force for the early rise comes from the continuous improvement of terminal demand
Downstream demand remains optimistic, with overall feedback from the materials sector indicating full orders, and the energy storage sector continuing to exceed expectations. In the first three quarters of 2025, the global cumulative shipment of energy storage cells reached 410.45GWh, a year-on-year increase of 98.5%. Among them, 170.24GWh was shipped in a single quarter in the third quarter, continuing to break the single quarter record.
In the field of new energy vehicles, in October, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, an increase of 21.1% and 20.0% year-on-year. The proportion of new car sales to total car sales reached 51.6%, setting a new historical high.
Later market sentiment fluctuations, lithium carbonate stops rising and returns to decline
On November 20th, the exchange announced the adjustment of contract fees and the establishment of stricter daily opening limits. The sentiment in the futures market has cooled down, and spot prices have stopped rising accordingly. Recent market news suggests that Ningde Times’ Jianxiawo lithium mine may resume production in early December, further putting pressure on prices.
Further cooling down market sentiment through destocking
The 14 week trend of destocking has significantly slowed down. As of the 21st, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 118400 tons, a decrease of only 2052 tons compared to the previous month, including 26100 tons of smelter inventory and 54400 tons of downstream inventory.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that in the medium to long term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate strongly under the situation of strong supply and demand. Rumors of short-term resumption of production will still disturb the market, and specific market changes need to be monitored.
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