Now, the proportion of consumption of crude oil, reduce the game under the bright prospects of copper consumption

Now, the proportion of consumption of crude oil, reduce the game under the bright prospects of copper consumption, Dr copper can shake the leading position of crude oil? Investment, after copper abandoned oil is desirable?

Replace the oil position? Not so simple

The decline in crude oil consumption appears, the current world economic situation, whether the actual demand will decline? While the demand for copper promotion space and how many?

In July 14th this year, Chinese Petroleum Economic and Technology Research Institute released a report, “2050 world energy outlook and Chinese” (hereinafter referred to as the “Outlook”), again for oil consumption mouthing. “Outlook” pointed out that global oil consumption will reach the peak in 2030 ~2040 years, then began to decline.

The report believes that the main purpose of the current oil is used as fuel for transportation. Oil consumption cap was mainly due to the refined oil (especially diesel) influence consumption reduced. The reason is that the fuel utilization rate can be improved and the development of alternative energy sources. In the industrialization of mature countries, oil consumption growth is very difficult to have a big breakthrough.

Oil consumption growth is mainly in developing countries. The economic development and population growth is the main driving force of growth of energy consumption. GDP growth in India will become a major country in the fastest-growing country population will exceed China in 2030. Although the China aging trend is obvious, but the service industry and the development of urbanization is faster than the global average, so the increase of energy consumption still has potential. Under this background, considering the possible future economic and technological breakthroughs and many other uncertain factors, “Outlook” the 4 prediction — policy scenario, extensive scenario, low-carbon scenario, strong constraint scenarios. But no matter what kind of situation, “consumption outlook” predicted oil will decline in the next 35 years.

In spite of this, but Huang Xiaojun believes that whether short-term or long-term, just because the consumption of crude oil will abandon bearish investment reasons Poxian thin. International oil production regional monopoly, due to the impact of oil price changes on the supply side of the price can not be ignored, do not rule out the consumption decline while prices rose. On the leading role of the commodity, the price is still an important indicator of inflation, will also continue to maintain its leading position in a long period of time.