price trend
In the second half of June, the domestic PC market continued to decline, with a significant drop in spot prices for various brands. As of June 24th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 13400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.42% from the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In the second half of June, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises continued to rise. The overall industry load rate has recovered to around 70%, and there are still plans to return the production capacity of aggregation plants in the future. The production loss is gradually shrinking, and the weekly average production has returned to 60000 tons. The smoothness of shipments from the aggregation plant has declined, and the willingness to raise prices has loosened. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is showing a trend of weakening.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market consolidated at a low level in June. International crude oil prices have sharply declined, with raw materials such as acetone and phenol fluctuating with each drop. Bisphenol A has limited supply changes and demand remains weak and rigid. Although the spot price has reached a temporary low after a decline at the beginning of the month. However, positive guidance within the market is difficult to achieve, and the market is deadlocked with weak expectations, resulting in overall weak support for PC cost values.
On the demand side: The sales situation of PC downstream factories is at a low season level, and the demand for sheet metal shells is weakening, resulting in low load levels for end enterprises. The current PC prices are rapidly moving in the right direction, with industry players chasing after gains and killing losses, and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The buyer is cautious in stocking up and has poor willingness to build a warehouse. The liquidity of the supply of goods has slowed down, and merchants’ offers have followed the market trend, resulting in an increase in profit sharing and order taking operations. The low-priced source of goods in the market needs to be digested, which creates a drag on the pricing focus of the aggregation factory. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
post-market forecast
At the end of June, the domestic PC market experienced a sharp decline. The price of upstream bisphenol A remains low and stable, and the cost value is difficult to support PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants continues to increase, and there are still expectations of relaxed supply in the future. On site trading is mainly based on weak demand, with cautious stocking and frequent small orders. At present, the supply and demand of PC are weak, cost expectations are weak, and the market orientation is relatively negative. It is expected that there may still be a risk of decline in the short term.
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