price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market remained strong and consolidated in mid February, with most spot prices of various brands fluctuating. As of February 9th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 12833.33 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -1.03% compared to the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In early February, the overall load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remained stable and slightly increased. The second line of Zhejiang Petrochemical has been restarted at the end of January, with the overall average operating rate of the industry dropping by 5% to over 86%, and the weekly average production exceeding 70000 tons. Due to the rapid digestion of social inventory at the beginning of the year, the production and sales pressure of aggregation factories remains at a relatively low level. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market continued its upward trend from the end of January in early February. The current increase in domestic supply of bisphenol A is limited, while phenol and acetone have followed the rise of crude oil and are currently consolidating at high levels. The high rigidity of raw materials has pushed up the theoretical cost of bisphenol A, forcing the holders to firmly raise prices and providing certain support for the cost of PC. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of new production capacity implementation and the risk of raw material price fluctuations in the future market.
On the demand side: The improvement in profitability of terminal enterprises is limited, and the load position of PC downstream factories is still not ideal. At the end of January, the centralized delivery of contract orders gradually ended, easing the tight supply situation in the early stage. At the same time, after the price increase, the buyer’s stocking has returned to caution, and coupled with the basic end of pre holiday stocking, the buyer’s willingness to continue building warehouses is not strong. However, due to the tight supply of goods in some areas, spot prices remain firm. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
On the eve of the Spring Festival, the domestic PC market was running at a high price. The price of upstream bisphenol A remains positive, and the cost value can still provide support for PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is stable with small increases, and there is a slight trend of relaxed supply in the future. During the holiday, the trading in the front court has returned to calm, and buyers are cautious in their mentality, with small orders being the main focus of their operations. It is expected that the PC market will continue to operate strongly after the holiday.
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