Before the Spring Festival, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market had entered a state of flat trading and stable prices after a brief period of strong operation at the beginning of the month. The market situation after the Spring Festival will mainly depend on the pace of downstream resumption of work.
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 11th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3800 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, trading turned weak and entered a stable state of “price but no market”.
Market forecast after the Spring Festival
Supply: In early February, some production facilities were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a temporary tightening of spot goods. After the holiday, the maintenance equipment will resume production in a centralized manner, and the accumulated inventory before the holiday is waiting to be digested; The expected increase in production capacity suppresses the medium-term space.
Requirement: Prior to the Spring Festival, downstream industries conducted a round of essential stocking to support prices. After the holiday, the electrolyte/PC resumed work in late February and returned to normal in early March; Procurement is mainly based on small orders for urgent needs, with a wait-and-see approach.
Cost: The prices of the main raw materials, propylene oxide and methanol, decreased in early February, weakening the driving force on the cost side. After the holiday, methanol/PO fluctuated at a low level, making it difficult to provide strong upward mobility.
After the holiday, it is expected that supply will recover faster than demand, and the pre holiday price effect will fade. Market trading is light, and manufacturers are offering discounts to reduce inventory. It is expected that prices may slightly decline. As downstream work gradually resumes and demand recovers, prices will stop falling and stabilize, showing an overall trend of weak first and then stable, narrow fluctuations, and difficult to rise significantly.
Upward risks: rebound in raw materials, unexpected electrolyte demand, and unexpected equipment maintenance
Downward risk: Early production of new capacity, unexpected resumption of downstream work, and centralized price reductions and destocking by manufacturers
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