Since 2026, the domestic EVA market has seen a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 13th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 13350 yuan/ton, an increase of 36.69% from 9766 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.
From January to February, EVA prices fluctuated narrowly, and market trading sentiment was sluggish. At this stage, photovoltaic installation and film production have entered the traditional off-season, with downstream demand mainly focused on rigid procurement and a lack of incremental support on the demand side; At the same time, the domestic EVA equipment is running smoothly, with sufficient supply of imported goods, and the supply and demand are in a weak balance state. Coupled with the high inventory in the early stage of the industry, the pressure of destocking has suppressed the upward momentum of prices, showing an overall trend of bottoming out and oscillation.
Since March, the EVA market has experienced an explosive rise, with prices skyrocketing from a low platform of 10150 yuan/ton to 13350 yuan/ton by mid April, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. There are three main influencing factors: firstly, on April 1st, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was cancelled. From late March to April, module companies concentrated on rushing to install, directly driving photovoltaic film factories to urgently replenish inventory. EVA for photovoltaic film accounted for 50% -60% of its total demand, and the short-term outbreak on the demand side disrupted the supply-demand balance; Secondly, in the second quarter, domestic EVA equipment underwent a large-scale centralized maintenance, with a phased reduction in supply from April to May. Coupled with fluctuations in overseas geopolitical situations, the import arbitrage window was closed, resulting in a sharp decline of over 50% in imported goods compared to the same period last year, highlighting the tight spot supply pattern; Thirdly, the upward trend in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of upstream raw materials such as ethylene and vinyl acetate, resulting in an increase in EVA production costs. Production enterprises have continuously raised their factory prices, further strengthening the bullish sentiment in the market.
As of early April, EVA construction has started around 7.8-8.10%. During the cycle, the prices of raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate remained high, and the cost faced EVA support strengthened. As of April 13th, the domestic price of ethylene in Sinopec East China was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.39% from 6150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year; As of April 13th, the market price of vinyl acetate in East China was 12300 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.45% from 5875 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.
With the peak of photovoltaic installation rush passing, the marginal slowdown of downstream export demand, the decline of speculative demand, and the market entering a wait-and-see period of long short game; However, supply side maintenance is still ongoing, and spot supply is not fully relaxed at present, making it difficult for prices to significantly decline in the short term.
Future forecast
Looking ahead to the future, the Business Society Spot Analysis System shows that the EVA spot price curve has gradually approached the 10 day moving average in recent days, indicating that the recent upward momentum has weakened and EVA prices may adjust weakly in the short term; In addition, the current EVA price is at a one-year high, and market operations suggest cautious buying in the short term, with a focus on wait-and-see.
| http://www.sulfamic-acid.com |