This week, there has been a continuous shortage of overseas supply, with high prices of acrylonitrile in foreign markets and continued support for exports. However, domestic demand is gradually shrinking, and there is a lack of spot buying potential, which has hindered the market from continuing to explore. In addition, negotiations in some northern markets have slightly declined. As of April 10th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 12000-12200 yuan/ton, compared to last week’s 12000-12300 yuan/ton, and the high-end price has dropped by 100 yuan/ton; Short distance delivery to Shandong market is 11700-11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week’s 11750-11850 yuan/ton; CFR South Asia is priced at 1920 US dollars per ton, up 80 US dollars per ton from last week’s 1840 US dollars per ton.
Supply reduction:
Jilin Petrochemical’s 712000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit will undergo rotational maintenance and load reduction this week. During the week, Jilin Petrochemical will carry out maintenance on its propylene glycol plant, resulting in a decrease in industry capacity utilization and supply reduction. According to statistics, as of April 9th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 71.58%, which was -2.51% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 83500 tons, which is less than 30000 tons compared to the previous cycle. Both supply and demand have decreased to a certain extent within the week, and domestic demand remains flat, with little change in enterprise inventory. As of April 8th, the total inventory was around 50000 tons, which was basically the same as last week.
Decreased domestic demand:
This week, downstream users are resistant to high raw material prices, and the overall utilization rate of production capacity in major industries has declined. Among them, Zhejiang Petrochemical and other facilities have reduced their load, and the utilization rate of ABS production capacity is 59.40%, which is -0.8% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 59.38%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 57.87%, which was -0.49% compared to last week. Overall, both ABS and acrylamide have shown a decrease in negative load, resulting in a decrease in overall demand for acrylonitrile.
Cost increase:
During the week, the price of raw material propylene increased, leading to a rise in costs, while the price of acrylonitrile remained relatively stable, resulting in a narrowing of theoretical profits and worsening of production losses. According to statistics, as of April 9th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 9150 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week’s 8805 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 11967 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 6.35%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was+183 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of -395 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the domestic acrylonitrile market is currently in a stalemate and consolidation, the external situation is still unstable, and the overseas supply shortage continues. However, domestic demand remains weak, and spot buying is insufficient. Under local sales pressure, the market is expected to experience a slight decline.
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