In April, the market for refined petroleum coke experienced a significant increase followed by a high-level decline, with prices showing a significant upward trend throughout the month. Market sentiment rose strongly at the beginning of the month, but experienced a phase of correction at the end of the month, with overall fluctuations being significant. The mainstream average price of sulfur products in petroleum coke from major domestic refineries was 3541.00 yuan/ton on March 31, an increase of 30.87% compared to 2705.75 yuan/ton on March 1.
Cost aspect: In April, the domestic fuel oil price of 180CST fell sharply. In the first half of April, the international crude oil market fluctuated and the downward trend provided limited support for the domestic ship fuel market. In addition, the domestic ship fuel blended raw material market declined, resulting in light demand in the middle and lower reaches and average purchasing willingness. Terminal demand did not improve, and ship owners were cautious about refueling. At the end of April, the international crude oil market saw a significant increase, supporting the domestic ship fuel market, which showed an upward trend. According to Business Society, as of April 30th, the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180cst fuel oil is 5800-6300 yuan/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120cst fuel oil is 5900-6400 yuan/ton.
Supply side: In April, domestic refineries entered the annual maintenance season, and some units were shut down for maintenance. However, the amount of imported petroleum coke arriving at the port in the early stage is still being digested, and port inventory remains high. Some refineries are experiencing poor shipments and inventory levels continue to rise. In order to accelerate capital recovery and alleviate inventory pressure, companies have lowered their quotations, leading to an overall weakening of regional prices, especially the concentrated price cuts in the latter half of the year, which further amplified market panic.
On the demand side: In April, the operating rate of terminal processing enterprises in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry remained low, and traditional downstream orders such as real estate and automobiles were weak, resulting in insufficient procurement for essential needs; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to be released, and the social inventory shows a trend of accumulating inventory. The demand for essential petroleum coke has significantly decreased, and many enterprises mainly consume their previous inventory. The strong willingness to lower prices in new purchase orders has directly led to the obstruction of the shipment of locally refined petroleum coke.
Market forecast: There will be no significant improvement in demand for downstream electrolytic aluminum and carbon steel industries in May, with a strong wait-and-see attitude in the market and cautious entry sentiment. The market trading atmosphere is average, and refinery inventory pressure is still present, with active shipment volume as the main focus; There is room for upward pricing in the new round of pre baked anodes, and stable production of pre baked anodes is favorable for the petroleum coke market. The price of petroleum coke may maintain a range oscillation trend in May.
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