After the holiday, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose
On May 9th, the price of isooctanol was 9066.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.03% from 8800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 2.16% from 9266.67 yuan/ton on April 1st. After the holiday, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose compared to the end of April, but the price is still lower than at the beginning of April. In 2026, the Chinese isooctanol market will be in a critical period of tight supply-demand balance and structural transformation. Multiple factors such as new production capacity, cost fluctuation risks, and increased exports will affect the price adjustment of isooctanol. After the holiday, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, and the supply of isooctanol briefly tightened. The price of isooctanol rebounded and rose after the holiday.
Weakened support for high propylene costs
Entering May, there has been an increase in the resumption of production in propylene enterprises, leading to an increase in propylene supply and weak demand. After the holiday, propylene prices have fluctuated and fallen. However, the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may be supporting raw material costs, causing prices to “not fall” and propylene prices to remain relatively high in history. The price drop after the holiday is more like a technical correction after a rapid rise, rather than a trend reversal. The high price of propylene supports the bottom price of isooctanol, and manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices has increased, providing support for the bottom price of octanol. But after the holiday, the price of propylene fell, and the cost support of high priced isooctanol weakened.
The operating load of isooctanol decreases
At the end of April, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises increased to 98%, and after the holiday, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased to 88%, resulting in a reduction in isooctanol supply. Some devices still have maintenance plans after the holiday, and there may be contraction on the supply side in the future. The tight supply provides support for the price increase of isooctanol.
2026 is the peak period for new production capacity in the isooctanol industry, and the concentrated deployment of new production capacity will have a significant impact on the market supply and demand balance, increasing the pressure of overcapacity. In the short term, due to changes in market supply and demand and the impact of enterprise maintenance plans, the industry’s operating rate has been widely adjusted, and the fluctuation range of the industry’s operating rate in the medium and long term has narrowed. It is expected that the fluctuation range of the operating rate for the whole year of 2026 will be narrowed to 80% -85%. Due to the impact of new device commissioning, phased environmental protection production restrictions, and enterprise profit adjustments, the elasticity of the supply side has weakened. The overall overcapacity pattern of isooctanol will further intensify, and market competition will become more intense.
outlook for the future market
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol product, on the cost side, the price of propylene has fallen after the holiday, and the cost support of isooctanol has weakened. However, due to the geographical impact of crude oil, the support for propylene’s rise is relatively large, and the space for propylene’s decline is limited. The downward pressure of isooctanol in the future market is insufficient; On the supply side, there is a significant increase in the production capacity of isooctanol, which increases the pressure on the supply of isooctanol. After the holiday, the production of isooctanol enterprises has decreased, and the supply of isooctanol has tightened, providing support for the rise in isooctanol prices; On the demand side, downstream plasticizer companies have stable production, which provides strong support for the demand for isooctanol. The increase in exports has a certain upward support for isooctanol. In terms of the future, the cost is high, the supply is tight in the short term, and there is a long-term surplus. In terms of demand, although isooctanol has export support, there is no structural growth in overall demand, and the situation of oversupply is difficult to change. The upward support for isooctanol in the future is insufficient, but due to geographical factors, the downward space for isooctanol is limited. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will weakly fluctuate and stabilize in the future.
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