In September, the domestic PTA market showed a volatile and strong operating pattern. As of September 11th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 6971 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.10% from the beginning of the month.
From the perspective of core drivers, the rise in PTA in this round mainly relies on favorable conditions on the cost side of crude oil. Recently, international crude oil has fluctuated strongly due to the geopolitical situation. As of September 10th, the settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $102.48 per barrel, and the settlement price of the November Brent crude oil futures contract was $107.63 per barrel. Provide favorable support for PTA spot and futures prices.
On the supply side, the PTA market has been continuously destocking in the early stage, with a relatively tight supply of spot goods, combined with processing differences to maintain a reasonable range, effectively supporting market prices and avoiding a significant decline in the market. With the restart and increase of most PTA maintenance units in September, the overall operating rate of the industry has steadily rebounded, and the market supply of goods has gradually relaxed. The previous pace of destocking has slowed down, and it is expected that the destocking will shift from destocking to supply-demand balance or even slight accumulation in the middle and late of this month.
The peak season of “Golden September” on the demand side did not meet expectations, coupled with high priced raw materials restricting terminal order demand, slow follow-up of terminal textile orders, and weak procurement of essential needs. As a result, the operating rate of downstream polyester enterprises is low, and some polyester chip factories plan to undergo maintenance. The polyester load will further decline, and the expected demand during peak season may fall short, making it difficult to drive PTA prices to continue to rise.
Analysts believe that in the short term, PTA will continue its strong range oscillation trend, with the cost side remaining the core influencing factor and relatively solid support. However, weak demand will suppress the weak upward momentum. With the continuous increase in market supply and insufficient fulfillment of peak season demand, the upward space for PTA will be further limited. If there is no strong driving force of a significant increase in crude oil prices, the market will be difficult to break through the range oscillation pattern, and the overall situation will show a “near strong far weak” trend. In the future, we will focus on the fluctuations of crude oil, changes in plant operation, and the landing of terminal polyester orders.
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