As of August 26th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde price was 8133.33 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 22.00% compared to the isobutyraldehyde price of 6666.67 yuan/ton on August 1st; The price of isobutyraldehyde decreased by 1.21% from 8233.33 yuan/ton on August 25th. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol is stabilizing, but the demand for isobutyraldehyde still remains supported. The price of raw material propylene is fluctuating and falling, and the demand support for cost reduction is weakening. The price of isobutyraldehyde has fallen from its high level.
The price of raw material propylene first rose and then fell
On August 26th, the propylene price was 8807.67 yuan/ton, which increased first and then decreased compared to the propylene price of 7927.67 yuan/ton on August 1st, with an increase of 11.10%; Compared to the high of 9017.67 yuan/ton on August 20th, the price of propylene has fallen by 2.33%. Since mid August, the price of propylene has fallen from a high level, the cost of isobutyraldehyde has decreased, and the downward pressure on isobutyraldehyde has increased.
Downstream isobutyraldehyde demand support weakens
The price of neopentyl glycol increased significantly in August. On August 26th, Yantai Wanhua quoted 9950-10100 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the August 1st quotation of 8850-8000 yuan/ton, and stabilized from the August 20th price; The price of neopentyl glycol quoted by Luxi Chemical is 8400 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the price of 7700 yuan/ton quoted on August 1st, and the price has stabilized compared to August 20th. In August, the price of neopentyl glycol rose sharply. With the price reaching a high level, downstream absorption was weak, and market fear of heights gradually emerged. There were differences in opinions among industry players, and the price of neopentyl glycol fell in the middle of the month, weakening the support for demand for isobutyraldehyde.
Supply continues to tighten
The continuous tightening of the supply side was the core driving force behind the price increase in August. The production of isobutyraldehyde has significantly decreased, and the maintenance of the Wanhua plant in Yantai has reduced the production of isobutyraldehyde to 60%. From August 7th to 13th, the weekly production of isobutyraldehyde was 1067 tons, with a weekly consumption of 8755.8 tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 1914.25 tons; From August 14th to 20th, production further decreased to 976 tons and consumption was 5713 tons. Leading enterprises continue to engage in additional external procurement, and isobutyraldehyde is in short supply with high prices remaining firm.
Market Overview and Forecast
Analysts believe that the current price of isobutyraldehyde is in the high range of the nearly one-year cycle. The upstream propylene market first rose and then fell, with weakened cost support; The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has declined, but there is still some support for isobutyraldehyde. Overall, the demand for cost reduction is weak, and the upward momentum of isobutyraldehyde has significantly narrowed. At the same time, the tightening of supply has limited the downward space of isobutyraldehyde prices. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the future, and the expectation of a mid-term decline in isobutyraldehyde is increasing.
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