This week, the overall supply remains tight, with low inventory levels in enterprises and overall price increases, resulting in a slight rebound in the market. As of August 21st, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is 12200-12400 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is between 12050-12150 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Continuous tight supply:
During the week, Zhejiang Petrochemical Company’s 520000 tons/year acrylonitrile plant was shut down for maintenance on August 14th due to a malfunction of a 130000 ton production line, which is expected to last for about 20 days. Currently, the overall operating load has dropped to 70%. According to statistics, this week (August 14-20), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 64.33%, a decrease of 4.99% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 75100 tons, which is 0.58 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The industry’s capacity utilization rate is low, and the overall supply of spot goods continues to be scarce. At the same time, the inventory of various acrylonitrile production enterprises remains low. As of August 19th, the total inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories is about 33500 tons, which is+0.05 million tons compared to last week.
Downstream demand decline:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has decreased, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 59.70%, a decrease of -1.0% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of the acrylic fiber industry is 51.48%, which is -1.99% higher than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 50.19%, which was -0.35% compared to last week. Henan Zhengjia stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in overall downstream demand.
Rising raw material costs:
During the week, the cost of raw materials increased, while at the same time, the price range of acrylonitrile was adjusted, resulting in a decrease in theoretical production profit. According to statistics, as of August 21st, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market is based on 8840-9000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 8920 yuan/ton, an increase of 345 yuan/ton from last week; The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 11104 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 4.02%. The average production profit is 1016 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of -500 yuan/ton.
Post production forecast:
At present, the supply expectation in the northern market is increasing, and it is expected that spot prices will continue to rise with resistance. However, the inventory of various enterprises is low, and the driving force for price increase still exists. The resource supply in the East China region is still tight. However, considering the incremental plan next month, buying is still cautious, and the downstream industries have poor profits from the demand side. There is still a clear resistance to the current acrylonitrile price. The on-site transactions are mainly driven by rigid demand buying, suppressing the market rebound rhythm. The market may maintain range oscillation. Overall, the news expectation is still unclear, especially with frequent supply side variables, and acrylonitrile prices will continue to operate at a high level.
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