Against the support of summer’s demands on fertilizer, urea prices rose slightly steady. At present, Shandong mainstream urea prices in the 1550-1560 yuan / ton, Henan mainstream price of 1,600 yuan / ton. Industry sources said that with the summer fertilizer demand from south to north gradually, urea prices are expected to be further support.
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Operating rate remained low
This round of price increases since May, mainly by the seasonal demand and supply to reduce the common role. At present, the demand for agricultural fertilizer in the south is strong, and demand in the north is still dominated by industrial demand, but the supply is significantly reduced. It is understood that the current operating rate of about 50% in Shandong, the southern region in about 30%, southwest and northeast of the operating rate is also at historically low. In addition to the reduction in supply, many integrated coal chemical enterprises in order to protect the overall profitability of enterprises, compressed urea production capacity. Some enterprises will switch to urea production capacity of methanol and other products. Part of the small business due to unbearable loss of pressure, choose to stop or exit.
This year, environmental pressures soared to accelerate the withdrawal of small businesses. Some medium-sized large enterprises also need to cut production at a specific time or temporarily stop production, supply is limited.
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Price recovery has attracted some of the port export supply back. During the Dragon Boat Festival, India ended the import of urea tender, the tender offer the West Coast minimum price of 211.25 US dollars / ton, the East Coast minimum offer 212.25 US dollars / ton. Taking into account the east coast freight 12 US dollars / ton, VAT 15 yuan / ton and other factors, set the price of less than 1,400 yuan / ton. This price is clearly not enough to attract, because some of the port supply back.
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Department of Materials Industry Deputy Director Pan Aihua in 2017 China Plastics Industry Conference revealed that in order to curb the nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer industry capacity of the blind expansion, and guide the industry orderly transfer and layout optimization, will be in the nitrogen, phosphate fertilizer industry capacity replacement Program research. Has commissioned the petrochemical industry and petrochemical planning institute research capacity replacement program.
Analysts pointed out that with the urea industry to accelerate production capacity, coupled with the industry is still not in the overall profitability, the urea industry operating rate is difficult to return to the past high level.
Many factors affect the price trend
Urea industry has been a serious excess capacity. However, the market conditions by the demand, transportation and coal costs, environmental protection and other factors, the price trend is more complex.
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According to the business monitoring data show that in 2016, the beginning of the manufacturers offer 1430.8 yuan / ton, the end of the average price of manufacturers to maintain at 1665.4 yuan / ton, urea prices rose 16.4%.
1 – 8 months, the downstream demand is weak, urea market continued weak operation. August by the “overrun transport vehicles driving road management regulations”, freight continued to rise, while coal prices continued to rise, environmental protection led to the operating rate continued low operation, urea market showed up to 300 yuan / ton increase, rally in November Slightly retreated, in December and showed a more substantial rise in the end of the year gradually rose gradually flat.
Into 2017, urea prices show a “N” -type trend, the lowest price in April, the manufacturers offer the basic average of 1,500 yuan / ton, the performance of related listed companies improved significantly.
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