First, the price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of August 15, the average domestic methanol market price was 2,988 yuan / ton, the overall market conditions rebounded slightly, the price rose 27.81% over the same period last year.
Second, the market analysis
Products: The domestic methanol market has been boosted by the futures surge. The two ports in East China and South China have risen by 70-130 yuan/ton. Some of the low-end follow-ups are good, but with the partial shipments gradually In Hong Kong, the amount of concealed goods in the reservoir area has increased significantly, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the outflow of this part of the volume. The new price of the main methanol producing area in the Mainland is 2590-2620 yuan/ton, and some shipments are still acceptable. Under the market phase, the center of gravity of Lunan, Shanxi and Henan will be moved up cautiously, but the local downstream receiving is still positive.
Industry chain: Formaldehyde: Recently, the domestic formaldehyde market has a general trend. Due to the decline of raw materials, the local trading atmosphere is slightly more general. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market has risen steadily. Due to the recent company’s downside, short-term failure and planned maintenance news, the company’s spot continued to be tight, so some offers rose. Downstream buying is just needed, and the acceptance of acetic acid price increases is not good. Dimethyl ether: The terminal deducted the market and digested the inventory. Most of the companies’ sales pressure increased significantly in recent days, but the inventory level was overall controllable, and the overall price trend of dimethyl ether stabilized.
Third, the market outlook
Business community view: On the positive side, under the influence of environmental protection, Shanxi and North Jiangsu coke oven gas methanol projects are still affected. Although some methanol plants in northern Jiangsu have been restored, but the products have not yet been produced, the resource supply in the region is still in a state of tension; Jiangsu MTO The annual overhaul has been basically completed. It is expected that the restart will be expected in advance, and it needs to be closely watched. At present, the external disk negotiation is still firm, and the Southeast Asian large-scale installation plans to be overhauled in the near future. At that time, the subsequent supply will shrink, specifically to be tracked; methanol, PP and PTA, etc. Commodity futures rose again, and continued to consolidate at a high level, which is good for the operator’s operational mentality. For the bearish side, the overall demand for downstream demand at the current stage is still cautious. The transfer of local cargo volume in Shandong and North China to the downstream is temporarily general, and some buyers are mainly waiting to see; the domestic and import arrivals are relatively concentrated recently, and the port inventory is still in place. Slowly accumulating; in the previous period, the amount of land and deck cover was large, and the domestically produced domestic cargoes were gradually concentrated in the port impact, so be vigilant. The methanol analyst of the business community expects that in the short-term market, there is no major change in the supply and demand side of the methanol market. The low inventory of the manufacturers and the downstream demand are general. The market is cautiously operating. The market is expected to be short-term, and the downstream receiving goods will be Hong Kong and futures trends, etc.
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