Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the domestic PC market fell this week, with spot prices of various brands generally lowered. As of March 17, the reference offer for the PC sample enterprises of the Business Club was around 16250 yuan/ton, up and down by – 1.32% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: As can be seen from the above figure, the recent market atmosphere for bisphenol A has been flat, with the rise and fall of both raw materials phenol and acetone, and the cost pressure on downstream bisphenol A plants remains. However, the downstream end continues to suffer from a downturn and insufficient orders, making it difficult to anticipate improvement in the short term. The bisphenol A plant has a stable load, a capacity utilization rate of nearly 80%, and sufficient supply, resulting in an increase in supply and demand contradictions and poor support for PCs.

Supply: This week, the overall PC operating rate in China was around 70%, with a narrow increase compared to the previous period. In addition, there has been new production capacity to release the negative market, and recently, the construction of the maintenance production line has been delayed, with the expected load increase unchanged. Overall, the supply side lacks support for the spot goods.

Demand: Recently, the downstream PC industry just needs to maintain production, and the industry has a heavy wait-and-see mentality. Currently, the starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, and there is a certain amount of raw material inventory that needs to be digested, resulting in increasingly light on-site trading. Traders have a weak mentality and operate in a biased way to yield profits and take orders.

Aftermarket Forecast

This week, the PC market fell, while the upstream bisphenol A market stabilized slightly, providing poor support for PC costs. The domestic polymerization plant has experienced a narrow rise in load, with weak follow-up on the demand side and high pressure on the supply side. It is expected that the PC market will continue to weaken due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions in the near future.

On March 16th, the average market price in East China was 179660 yuan/ton, down 4.42% from the previous trading day. The mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market is 179000-180500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 179750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8500 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

On the night of the 15th, crude oil fell sharply, while the US dollar closed up 1%. The combination of bearish factors such as the Credit Suisse crisis affected market sentiment. The metal market fell throughout the night, with Shanghai Tin leading the decline of 4.17% in internal trading. In the morning of 16th, the metal decline slightly narrowed, but tin was strongly affected by the macro market. In the morning of 16th, it still fell by more than 3%, and the spot market significantly decreased following the trend of futures.

From the perspective of supply and demand, recent changes in tin have been limited, with both supply and demand weak. The recent fluctuations mainly follow the macro trend. In the future, the tin market still maintains a weak trend, and it is necessary to focus on the actual downstream demand and the impact of domestic and foreign macro policies on the market mentality.

This week (3.6-10), domestic polysilicon was mainly stabilized, the price of imported goods was slightly lower, and the price of domestic materials was the same as that quoted last week. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the weekly rise and fall rate was 0%. At the end of the week, the main stream range of single crystal densification with the model of Class I solar energy reached the range of 20.0-22.5 million yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the supply side has not changed much, and the enterprise operating rate has maintained a medium-high level. The manufacturer’s shipment volume remained stable, and the inventory pressure was low. The number of orders signed by large factories continued to follow up this week, and new orders were signed in April. As the price of downstream silicon wafers is weak, the bargaining power of silicon manufacturers is weakened, and the price of large silicon manufacturers mostly maintains the price level of last week, and may maintain interval adjustment later.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, the price of Longji, a large silicon wafer manufacturer, increased by 4-5% last Friday, but the quotations of small and medium-sized silicon wafer manufacturers still did not improve. There was room for decline in the import supply of some models, and domestic silicon wafers remained stable. The main reason is that downstream battery cells and components generally resist the influence. The mainstream price of the mainstream model single crystal M10 is stable at 6.2 yuan/piece, and the mainstream price of G12 is stable at 8.2 yuan/piece. Downstream demand remained just in demand, and the operating rate of silicon wafer manufacturers remained at a medium level, with a slight slowdown in the supply, and silicon wafers remained weak in the short term.

From the perspective of battery chips and components, the price of battery chips stabilized this week, and the market stopped falling, mainly because the upstream silicon chips stopped falling and stabilized, and the battery profit space was limited. The mainstream transaction price of single crystal M10 battery chip was about 1.08 yuan/W, which was stable compared with the previous week and decreased by 0.02 yuan compared with the end of the previous month. The mainstream transaction price of G12 battery chips is about 1.08 yuan/W, which is the same as last week. The price of downstream components is mainly stabilized. Maintain the quotation level last week. The demand for terminal installation has not improved significantly. At present, the market is still playing upstream and downstream games.

Future forecast: The polycrystalline silicon analysts of the Business Agency believe that the current photovoltaic industry chain has entered a consolidation pattern, especially the weak growth in the downstream. The high costs in the upstream generally bring pressure to the downstream, and the price of silicon materials is difficult to improve much. Continued weak consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of domestic spandex fell recently. As of March 14, the average market price of 40D specification was 38750 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from March 2 and 31.05% year on year. The spandex industry has started steadily at more than 80%, and the manufacturers have sufficient supply of goods. However, downstream end customers followed up cautiously, and most customers had a bearish attitude towards the future market, resulting in a slight decline in the price of spandex.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan/ton)

AREA ./ 20D./ 30D ./ 40D

Zhejiang/ 39000-43000./ 38000-41000./ 35000-38000

Shandong/ 39000-43000./ 38000-41000./ 35000-38000

Fujian/ 39000-45000./ 38000-42000./ 35000-40000

Jiangsu/ 39000-43000./ 38000-41000./ 35000-38000

The PTMEG market is stable and wait-and-see, and the support from the supply and demand side is acceptable, but the raw material BDO is down, the terminal demand is general, and the market mentality is turning cautious. At present, the 1800 molecular weight PTMEG is negotiated and evaluated at 21000-22000 yuan/ton. The pure MDI market is stable, the supply of goods is tight, the overall attitude of traders is different, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high, and the market reference price is 20000-21000 yuan/ton of T/T barreled self-delivery.

With the arrival of the traditional textile market peak season, a new round of procurement has started in the downstream field, and the start of weaving and end market has increased slightly. The start of the warp knitting field has been stable at around 70%, and the start of the circular knitting field has been stable at 5-60%. However, the demand was general and the trading atmosphere was flat. Domestic orders in spring and summer have increased, while foreign trade orders have not improved, and the factory feedback that new orders are insufficient.

According to the analysts of the Business News Agency, the supporting role of the cost side is temporarily stable, and the downstream end customers purchase on demand, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the market price of spandex will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of the domestic mainstream market of neopentyl glycol dropped from 11200.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.98%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 42.30% year on year. The neopentyl glycol commodity index on March 12 was 52.37, which was the same as yesterday, down 49.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 21.65% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol fell slightly.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell first and then rose this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market fell from 7300 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7100.00 yuan/ton on March 8, down 2.74%. Then it rose to 7266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 2.35%. Overall, the price of isobutyraldehyde fell 0.46% this week. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 48.58% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was general. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future prospects

In the middle and late March, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fall slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has a downward trend over the weekend, with general cost support. The downstream paint market is general, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials and other factors, and the market price may fall slightly.