Price trend

In the first ten days of March, the domestic PA66 market was sideways after falling. According to the monitoring of the data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA66 was 20666.67 yuan/ton on March 10, up and down by -1.59% from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In the first ten days of March, the market of PA66 was weak, and the spot price was stagnant after falling. In terms of supply, the total monthly load of domestic PA66 industry is more than 65%, which is the same as last week. Enterprise operations continue to be biased towards destocking, with general inventory pressure and abundant supply of goods on the site. In the upstream, the raw material of adipic acid was subject to narrow fluctuations, the industrial load of adipic acid was increased, the supply was increased, the market participants were cautious in operation, and the market was sorted out. PA66 raw material end is generally supported by the stock. In terms of demand, the situation is weak and difficult to change. The terminal enterprises just need to follow up with the maintenance of goods. Buyers generally have strong resistance to high-priced supply. It is expected that PA66 will continue its weak consolidation market in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast

This week, the spot price of PA66 was stagnant. The market at the raw material end is soft, and the support for the cost end of PA66 is general. The load of PA66 enterprises is stable, and the overall inventory position is average. The demand side is weak in taking goods, and it is expected that PA66 will continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of March 8, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1092 yuan/ton; Compared with March 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1074 yuan/ton), the price increased by 18 yuan/ton, or 1.68%; Compared with December 8 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1056 yuan/ton), the price increased by 36 yuan/ton, or 3.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency that this week (3.03-3.08), the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole saw a slight rise. With the coming of the spring planting season, the demand for phosphate fertilizer downstream of the phosphate rock terminal will also gradually increase. The demand side will give more support to the phosphate rock. The supply in the phosphate rock field will continue to be tight. With the joint support of supply and demand, the overall focus of the domestic market of medium-high grade phosphate rock will continue to close up. As of March 8, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate rock will be around 1050-1150 yuan/ton, The price of 28% grade phosphate rock is around 960-990 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the specific price and the raw ore specification and the powder to lump ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated on a real basis.

Prediction and analysis of the future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field is mild, and the operators are in a good mood. Some mining enterprises continue to deliver preliminary orders. The phosphorus ore statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will remain high and strong as a whole, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand information.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market rose from 7066.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7300.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 3.30%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 50.68% year-on-year. The isobutyraldehyde commodity index on March 5 was 37.06, which was the same as yesterday, down 64.90% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 23.04% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7490.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7516.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.35%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, from 11033.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 11200.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.51%. The market of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, and the downstream demand was good, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the first ten days of March may be volatile. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. The market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream has a downward trend, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream is general. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of the Business Club believes that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may suffer from small fluctuations and falls under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other factors.

According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the domestic cyclohexanone market fluctuated in a narrow range. On February 27 and March 3, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 9466 yuan/ton to 9516 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.53%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.03%. The raw material pure benzene rose, and the cost support was upward. The supply of cyclohexanone was reduced, and the external quotation of manufacturers was increased, but the downstream demand was the main demand, and the market transaction was general, and the rise of cyclohexanone market was limited.

On the cost side, the domestic market price of pure benzene rose. The domestic production of pure benzene continued to increase, but the internal and external prices were upside down, the import volume was reduced, the downstream demand was expected to improve, and the demand for steel and speculators were bullish at the same time, and actively entered the market for procurement.

In terms of supply, the market is relatively abundant at present. The main production enterprises are overhauling or stopping production. Some production enterprises mainly supply caprolactam, and cyclohexanone is not exported for the time being. The supply side of cyclohexanone in the short term is difficult to have positive factors.

On the demand side, the price of caprolactam rose, the spot price of upstream pure benzene rebounded, and the cost formed support. In addition, in the early stage, some enterprises of caprolactam had short-term negative reduction or maintenance, and the supply of caprolactam had declined, and the market confidence was strong. The demand side of cyclohexanone was slightly positive.

The future forecast shows that the supply and demand of cyclohexanone is weak and the cost support is relatively stable. The cyclohexanone analyst of the business agency predicted that the domestic cyclohexanone market was mainly strong in the short term.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of the Business News Agency, the price trend of acetic acid in February was weak and downward. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3245.00 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 3183.33 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.90% within the month, and the price was down 26.85% year-on-year.

As of the end of the month, the market price of acetic acid in various regions in China in February was detailed as follows:

Region/ February 1/ February 15/ February 28th

South China/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton

North China/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton

Jiangsu Province/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 2950 yuan/ton

Zhejiang Province/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton

At the beginning of February, the downstream replenishment demand was supported, the market trading atmosphere was good, the enterprise shipment was smooth, and the price of acetic acid rose slightly; In the middle of the year, the acetic acid market declined in a weak way. During this period, the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity increased and the market supply was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak. In order to stimulate the shipment, the acetic acid manufacturers reduced their prices one after another. Under the mood of buying up or not, the focus of acetic acid trading continued to move down; At the end of the month, the price of coal rose, the cost of acetic acid increased, and the enterprise adjusted the price, but due to the limited demand, the price of acetic acid only rose slightly. The price of acetic acid fluctuated in February.

The methanol market at the raw material end was weak and volatile. The average price of domestic market at the end of the month was 2743 yuan/ton, which was 1.32% lower than the price of 2780 yuan/ton on February 1. The inventory of enterprises is sufficient, the downstream demand is general, the market oversupply is obvious, and the price of methanol is adjusted in a weak way. Affected by the echo of the price of raw coal in the last ten days, the price of methanol rises, but the demand side has no positive support, and the price falls at the end of the month.

The downstream butyl acetate market was consolidated and operated in February, with a price of 7450 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 1.36% from the price of 7350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the upstream acetic acid price rose, the cost support was good, and the price of butyl acetate rose; In the middle and late decades, cost support weakened, while downstream demand was weak, the market transaction atmosphere was not positive, and the price range of butyl acetate fluctuated.

In the future, the analysts of the Business Agency believe that the current acetic acid capacity utilization rate is high, the supply side supply is sufficient, the downstream follow-up is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is poor, and the market is lack of positive support. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will stagnate and reorganize, and there will be follow-up changes under specific attention.