According to the data monitoring of the business community, the dichloromethane market rose first and then fell in December. As of December 26, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2352 yuan/ton, up 5.26% from 2235 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the month was 2490 yuan/ton. In the first half of December, prices rose due to the overall decline of the start of the dichloromethane industry, but the demand remained sluggish. In the second half of December, prices fell back.

The supply of methane chloride decreased slightly in December.

Raw material prices fell in shock, and the cost of dichloromethane fell slightly. According to the business community, as of December 26, the spot price of methanol was 2558 yuan/ton, down 4.60% from 2681 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Both supply and demand of methanol are weak. On the one hand, with the signing of the Long term Coal Association in 2023, the demand of power plants for market coal will be further weakened, and the profit space of non power industry will be squeezed, mainly relying on rigid demand procurement. Affected by policies, the short-term coal market may weaken steadily. The positive cost of methanol disappears; On the other hand, many downstream dimethyl ether and formaldehyde plants have stopped, the demand is weak, and the domestic methanol market is weak.

In December, the third generation refrigerant R 32 downstream of dichloromethane started at a low level. In addition, the thinner/coating industry started at a low level, with weak demand, and the price of dichloromethane fell.

Future forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the cost of dichloromethane is down, the demand is weak, and the supply pressure is still on. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will continue to be weak in the short term.

As of December 21, the DMF market continued to decline in 2022, with a decline of 64.31% throughout the year. The high price at the beginning of the year was 15900 yuan/ton, and the low price in December was 5675 yuan/ton. The DMF market will continue to decline in 2022, with the downstream industrial chain running slowly and demand support weak.

In the first quarter, the DMF market rose and fell. The price peaked in February, at 16575.00 yuan/ton. The price remained relatively high. In March, the price began to fall. At the end of March, the DMF price was 14550 yuan/ton, down 8.49% in the first quarter. In March, the DMF price mainly declined, down 8.12% from the same period in February, down 1300 yuan/ton.

In the second quarter of April, the DMF market still maintained a downward trend. As of April 26, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 13250.00 yuan/ton, down 8.63% compared with the beginning of April, 9.86% compared with the same period in March, and the mainstream price was 13200 yuan/ton. In May, the DMF price fluctuated, rising and falling. In early May, the price rose, and in late May, the price fell. Near the end of the month, the price recovered. At present, the mainstream price is 12600 yuan/ton, In June, the DMF price was relatively narrow and strong. From 12550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12700 yuan/ton at the end of the month, the price at the beginning of the month rose by 1.2% compared with the end of the month, with an increase of about 100 yuan/ton. As a whole, the price in June was narrow, and the mainstream price range was 12500-12700 yuan/ton.

In the third quarter, DMF prices started to run in a narrow and weak range in July. From 12500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11250 yuan/ton at the end of the month, the overall price in July fell by 10%, and the mainstream price range was 10500 yuan/ton. In August, the price still fell mainly. As of August 31, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 10625.00 yuan/ton, from 12500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10625 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall price in August was weak, with an overall decline of 5.56%, The mainstream price range is 10500 yuan/ton. In September, the DMF price dropped sharply, from 10625 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8850 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall decline in September reached 16.71%. At the end of September, the DMF price stopped falling and rebounded, with a rising trend.

The fourth quarter entered October. As of October 26, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 7175.00 yuan/ton. The price of DMF fell in October, from 8850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7175 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The overall decline in October was 18%. At the end of October, the price of DMF had an upward trend and a strong trend. The price in November was still declining. The price of DMF in November showed a weak downward trend, down 18.12% compared with the same period in October, with a monthly decline of 1300 yuan/ton, The weekly drop was 800 yuan/ton. In December, the DMF market stopped falling and rebounded, and the price rose. As of December 21, the DMF price is easy to rise but hard to fall. The rise may last until the beginning of 2023.

In 2022, DMF has been going all the way for a full year, and the price has reached a low point. At the end of the year, DMF shows signs of stopping falling and rebounding. At present, the industry is not active, and the operating rate remains low, but it is still unable to reverse the downturn. Demand is lack of support, logistics is seriously stranded, and shipment is slow. At present, the DMF market has a rising trend, and manufacturers are operating at a high price, which is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. It is expected that the DMF price will rise in 2023.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese decreased slightly this week (December 9 to December 16). The spot market price in East China last weekend was 17550 yuan/ton, and this weekend was 17500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton.

Manganese ore: This week, the northern manganese ore market maintained a consolidation operation, and the overall price did not change significantly, with few deals. The southern manganese ore market was active in trading. The semi carbonic acid cargo right in South Africa was relatively concentrated, and the transaction price was 1-1.5 yuan/ton higher than that of last Friday. The upward momentum of the oxidized ore price slowed down. As for the price, as of the 16th, the amount of carbonic acid in Tianjin Port was about 35.5 yuan/ton, that in Gabon was about 42 yuan/ton, and that in Australia was about 45.5 yuan/ton. Mn28 South Africa high-speed railway had a small supply of goods, and the price performance was firm. The quotation was 30.5-31 yuan/ton. The price of Qinzhou Port remained high. The transaction price of Australia was 47 yuan/ton, Gabon was 44-44.5 yuan/ton, and South Africa’s semi carbonic acid was 39 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the price at the end of August, it continues to stabilize temporarily. Since the end of September, the price has picked up slightly. Since October, the price has remained unchanged for a long time, fluctuated slightly in November, and adjusted narrowly in December.

The price of electrolytic manganese market decreased slightly this week. The mainstream price of the market was 16000-16200 yuan/ton. The bearish sentiment in the market was heavy, and the overall trading was slightly cold. In terms of supply, enterprises have a strong attitude of price fixing, generally above 16000 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. However, as the downstream steel plants enter the winter storage season, the market is expected to improve to some extent in the near future. The performance of steel recruitment is average, and the price drops slightly, affecting the market mentality. On the whole, the current electrolytic manganese market is stable and weak. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. In the long run, there is still a certain demand for winter storage in steel plants, and the market is waiting for the guidance of steel bidding.

This week, the domestic silicon manganese market had a strong trend. The spot price rose steadily, the market transaction was good, the manufacturer’s orders were basically full, and the spot inventory was tight. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7200-7300 yuan/ton on December 16, with the average market price of 7225 yuan/ton, up 1.40% weekly.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic methanol market was operating at a low level. From December 12 to 19 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2690 yuan/ton to 2633 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 2.11%, 7.22% month on month and 3.03% year on year. The main reason is supply and demand. In terms of supply, most production enterprises focus on de stocking, and traditional downstream enterprises also have early parking performance, resulting in weak overall demand performance.

As of the closing of December 19, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2610 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2632 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2562 yuan/ton, and it closed at 2571 yuan/ton, down 43, or 1.64%, from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1273897, the position was 976993, and the daily increase was 91518.

As of 12.19, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region./Price

Shanxi Province./2300 yuan/ton ex factory

Liaoning Province./2400-2420 yuan/ton or so

Anhui Province./2520-2620 yuan/ton or so

Henan Province./2370-2380 yuan/ton

In terms of cost, raw coal: the situation of epidemic prevention and control in the main production areas has improved slightly, and the supply of coal has rebounded. In the short term, due to the impact of cold air, the daily consumption of the power plant rebounds, and the demand for coal increases. However, with the support of long-term coal cooperation, the market coal procurement is limited, and the coal price is expected to operate weakly and stably. The cost of methanol is favorable.

Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Chongqing Wanlilai plant is planned to stop, and the demand for dimethyl ether may decrease; Downstream acetic acid: Celanese plans to start up, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream formaldehyde: Shandong Lianyi Plant reduced its load, Zibo Diancun Plant stopped, and the demand for formaldehyde may decrease; Downstream MTBE: Some overhaul plants are planned to start, and MTBE demand may increase. Methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall recovery volume was greater than the maintenance volume, the capacity utilization rate increased, and the methanol supply side was negative.

In terms of external market, as of December 16, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 364.00-365.00 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton. The US Gulf methanol market closed at 102.75-103.75 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/ton; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 318.00-319.00 euros/ton, up 0.5 euros/ton.

Region./Country./Closing price./Up and down

Asia./CFR Southeast Asia./364.00-365.00 USD/ton./2 USD/ton

Europe and America./American Gulf./102.75-103.75 cents/gallon./2 cents/gallon

Europe./FOB Rotterdam./318.00-319.00 euro/ton./0.5 euro/ton

The future forecast shows that the cost side of methanol is supported, and the demand side of the supply side is mixed. Methanol analysts from the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated by shocks.

Dichloromethane rose this week (12.9-12.16). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2477 yuan/ton, up 4.32% from 2375 yuan/ton last Friday, and the lowest point in the cycle was 2337 yuan/ton. As of the 16th day, the market price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was between 2470 and 2600 yuan/ton.

This week (12.9-12.16), the spot market of methanol fluctuated downward, and the cost of dichloromethane fell slightly. According to the business community, as of December 16, the spot price of methanol was 2655 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from 2680 yuan/ton last Friday, and the peak in the cycle was 2690 yuan/ton.

When winter comes, the domestic household air conditioning industry is in the low season of production and sales. The demand for mainstream refrigerants R32, R22 and R410A is weak, and the sales of refrigerants are low; The demand of film, thinner and pharmaceutical industries is weak, and the transaction of methylene chloride market is generally flat.

Future market forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the pressure on domestic supply side of methane chloride will ease in the short term, and the demand side will be weak. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will rise in a volatile way in the short term.