According to the monitoring of the business community, the ethanol market will fluctuate in a narrow range in 2022. In 2021, the price of ethanol will break through a five-year high. In 2022, with the normalization of demand, the ethanol market will also be relatively narrow, with no obvious fluctuations. The price dropped by 2.14% from 7000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 6850 yuan/ton at the end of the year (as of December 15). The highest price in the year was 7566 yuan/ton in the middle and late May, and the lowest price was 6625 yuan/ton in the late August, with a maximum amplitude of 12.44%.

Since the epidemic, ethanol, as a major disinfectant, has become a necessity in people’s daily life. The proportion of medical alcohol has increased a lot, becoming one of the main uses of ethanol. At present, the supply of medical alcohol is sufficient to meet the people’s living needs, and the price is rarely too high for a short time due to insufficient supply. The main factors affecting the ethanol market in 2022 are demand side and cost side. It can be seen from the price rise and fall chart of the ethanol industry chain of the business community that the annual drop of ethanol was 2.14%, ethanol raw materials: wheat rose 10.67%, corn rose 6.8%, and the cost side was positive, while the downstream product ethyl acetate fell significantly, with a decline of 22.58%. It can be seen that the rise of raw materials restrained the drop of ethanol, and downstream demand directly affected the trend of the ethanol market.

The ethanol market in the whole year can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the middle and late May, with upward shocks; The second stage is from the beginning of June to the end of August; The third stage is from the beginning of September to now, dominated by narrow fluctuations. Specifically:

From January to May 2022, the ethanol market fluctuated upward. Supply side: The large corn ethanol plants in the northeast of the main production area have reduced production and supply. The supply side is very good, and the supply of ethanol is short. Cost: The price of raw corn rose by 6.38%. Feed in spring and summer entered the traditional peak demand season, and the consumption of corn increased. The ethanol production enterprises faced the situation of high prices of raw materials with less shortage, and the cost was good. Demand side: downstream chemical products such as ethyl acetate just need to be purchased, and Baijiu has stable demand due to weather, which supports the price.

From June to August 2022, the ethanol market will decline unilaterally, and the price will drop significantly by 11.50%. The main factors are cost and demand. Cost: The price of raw corn is on the downward trend. Affected by more rainfall in the early stage, it was difficult to store corn, and the price fell continuously; After that, wheat gradually entered the stage of large-scale listing, forming a certain pressure on corn prices. On the demand side, in the high temperature period in summer, most downstream Baijiu enterprises, the main force of ethanol, have stopped production at high temperature. The profit of ethyl acetate is upside down and its other raw material, acetic acid, is also in a weak state. The cost support is insufficient, the price drops, the start of construction is weak, and some manufacturers have stopped for maintenance and reduced load, which has led to the reduction of ethanol demand. Domestic ethanol is already in a state of overcapacity, and it is easier to accumulate inventory after the downstream demand decreases. The inventory pressure makes ethanol enterprises more bearish, and the price reduction is used to stimulate shipment. The ethanol market has been declining.

From September 2022 to now, the ethanol market fluctuated and rose in September. Affected by the pre holiday stock, the downstream purchasing atmosphere showed signs of warming. Since entering the traditional peak season of “Yinshi”, the demand for chemical end ethyl acetate has been sluggish recently, and the price has dropped continuously, which has caused the decrease of ethanol demand. Domestic ethanol is already in a state of overcapacity, and it is easier to accumulate inventory after the downstream demand decreases. The inventory pressure makes ethanol enterprises more bearish, and the price reduction is used to stimulate shipment. The downstream Baijiu enterprises, which are the main force of ethanol, have entered the start-up state in succession. However, the plant start-up rate is not high. Before the temperature turns cold, the sales of Baijiu is general, which cannot support the ethanol market in October. Since November, the amount of repeated disinfection of the epidemic has increased, and chemical enterprises just need to purchase. The continuous rise has also stimulated the downstream to take goods. At the same time, the weather is getting colder, the demand for Baijiu is increasing, and the price of corn, the raw material, remains high. The negative factors that dominate the ethanol market are in the supply side, with overcapacity and sufficient supply, and the ethanol price is difficult to recover.

According to incomplete statistics, the new coal production capacity in China will reach 3.5 million tons in the future, which is mainly due to the continuous high trend of China’s corn price, the high production cost of corn fermentation method, and the comparative advantage of coal to ethanol production cost, which will have a certain share in the market. However, the overall ethanol market supply is large, and the downstream increment is limited, so the new production increase may not be able to be implemented.

It is predicted in the future that after the centralized release of new capacity in 2022, the ethanol industry has turned into a state of oversupply, and corporate profits have shrunk significantly, which may affect the release progress of some new capacity in the later period. At present, domestic production enterprises plan to withdraw a total of 3.47 million tons of production capacity, mainly in Jilin, Heilongjiang, Henan and other regions. The main reason for the withdrawal of production capacity is that enterprises do not have industrial competitiveness and the market will eliminate itself. At present, the price of raw corn is high, the pressure on production cost is great, and the profit of ethanol production enterprises is insufficient. However, the sluggish demand is still the main factor restricting the price of ethanol. The ethanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic ethanol market will be dominated by the downturn in the short term. In the medium and long term, the increase of corn free ethanol production capacity and high-quality coal based ethanol production capacity may lead to a wave of growth in the ethanol industry by optimizing resource allocation.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 14, the price of PET water bottle is relatively strong. The current average price is 7160.00 yuan/ton, up 0.42% compared with the same period last week. The overall market is relatively strong. At present, the operating rate is stable. Downstream just needs to purchase. The transaction atmosphere is general.

This week, the domestic PET price is on the strong side, and the price has risen slightly. The mainstream price is about 6900 yuan/ton. At present, the market operation rate is stable, and the negotiation atmosphere is not good enough to prepare goods.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On December 13, the rubber and plastic index was 667 points, unchanged from yesterday, 37.08% lower than the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and 26.33% higher than the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from the business agency believe that the mainstream price of PET market is expected to be stable and strong in the short term.

According to the data of the list of bulk commodities of the business community, the market of formaldehyde in Shandong has fallen recently. On the 7th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1313.33 yuan/ton, and on the 13th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1260.00 yuan/ton, down 4.06%, and the current price fell 3.57% year on year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong has fallen. From the figure above, it can be seen that the recent market of formaldehyde has fallen mainly. As of December 13, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1170-1350 yuan/ton. Recently, due to the impact of public security incidents, the downstream factories have continued to decline in construction, and the demand has weakened significantly. Formaldehyde manufacturers have difficulty in shipping. In order to increase the volume, the market is weak and falling.

Upstream methanol situation: domestic methanol market fluctuated, mainly due to supply and demand. In terms of supply, most production enterprises focus on de stocking, and traditional downstream enterprises also have early parking performance, resulting in weak overall demand performance. The cost side of methanol has been supported, but the supply side has not decreased, and the demand side has not changed much. Methanol analysts from the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated by weak ones.

Recently, the methanol market is weak and the downstream demand is hard to improve in the short term. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative predicted that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong would mainly fall due to shock.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price trend of sulfur in East China continued to rise this week. The average price of sulfur on December 9 was 1513.33 yuan/ton, up 4.37% compared with 1450.00 yuan/ton on December 3, and up 13.78% month on month.

The sulfur market in East China has improved, the terminal winter fertilizer storage market has been actively promoted, the downstream demand for sulfur has increased, the refinery shipments are smooth, the inventory is low, and the sulfur quotation has continued to rise. As of September 9, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong was about 1430-1680 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was 1380-1550 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market was weak. As of December 9, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 301.67 yuan/ton, down 6.22% compared with 321.67 yuan/ton on December 2. The transportation in some areas is blocked, the downstream is not willing to receive goods, the enterprise’s shipment is average, and the acid enterprise’s inventory is accumulated. In order to maintain the rhythm of shipment, the price of sulfuric acid is lowered.

Monoammonium phosphate continued to rise. On December 9, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3550.00 yuan/ton, and on December 2, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3466.67 yuan/ton. The market price of monoammonium phosphate rose 2.40%. The winter storage market of phosphate fertilizer has been actively promoted, the operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises has increased, and the demand for raw materials has increased. In addition, the operating rate of monoammonium phosphate manufacturers is low, the market supply is tight, and the supply of goods is small. The price of monoammonium phosphate continues to rise.

Future market forecast

According to the sulfur analysts of the business community, the terminal winter storage market is progressing smoothly at present, with favorable downstream support, increased sulfur demand, tight refinery inventory, and good simultaneous market supply and demand. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to rise, with specific attention paid to the downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 10, the price of nitrile rubber was 15150 yuan/ton. Since December, the market of nitrile rubber has continued to be weak and stable. The demand continues to be sluggish and the inquiry is not active. The ex factory price of nitrile rubber of domestic enterprises was stable. As of October 10, the ex factory report of Lanzhou Nitrile Rubber N41 was 13,400 yuan/ton. Narrow adjustment of market offer. At present, the mainstream report of 2665 nitrile in Russia is 13200~13400 yuan/ton.

In the first ten days of December, the price of butadiene as raw material rose slightly, while the price of acrylonitrile fell sharply. The cost support of butadiene acrylonitrile rubber was still weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 10, the price of butadiene was 63566 yuan/ton, up 0.642.48% from 6407 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material acrylonitrile fell sharply. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 10, the price of acrylonitrile was 10020 yuan/ton, down 4.57% from 10500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

NBR supply side pressure continues.

Recently, the downstream rubber products industry continued to operate at a low level, the purchase of nitrile rubber was sluggish, the market turnover was light, and the demand for nitrile rubber was insufficient.

Future market forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that the supply side pressure of NBR is still at present, coupled with weak demand, and it is expected that NBR will be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term. Later, with the launch of stock preparation before the year, the nitrile rubber market may rise slightly.