1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the average price of nickel in the spot market on August 8 was 194000 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous trading day and up 34.58% year on year.

The surge in inflation and interest rate hikes weakened the demand for metals, and Luni closed down 1.76% overnight. Due to poor property market data, the turnover of stainless steel inventory turns weak, the demand for ferronickel is weak, and the inquiry price is scarce. It is expected that spot nickel will fall this year. At present, the supply of goods is still stable, and the decline of spot premium will be postponed due to the weakening of the market; However, due to the fact that the actual demand has not been greatly followed up, the market activity is generally low, which continues the pressure on some merchants to ship. It is expected that nickel price will continue to fluctuate widely.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 7033.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6833.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 2.84%. On November 6, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 34.69, unchanged from yesterday, down 67.14% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 15.17% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market of isobutyraldehyde upstream raw material market fell slightly this week, with the price dropping from 7340.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7000.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decline of 4.63%. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 10066.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9633.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 4.30%. Neopentyl glycol market fell slightly and downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late November may fall slightly. The upstream propylene market declined slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. The market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream fell slightly, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement weakened. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may be subject to slight shock and decline under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

Price trend

At the beginning of November, the domestic PA66 market was operating at a high price. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA66 was 25250 yuan/ton on October 30 and 25250 yuan/ton on November 5, with a weekly increase or decrease of 0% and -36.88% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

At the beginning of November, the price of PA66 was generally stable, but the market eased. The upstream raw material market is generally strong, and the cost side of PA66 is strongly supported. In terms of industry operating rate, PA66 enterprises were continuously affected by the tight supply of raw materials in the early stage, the industry load was limited, and the spot supply in the market was tight, but the inventory has increased recently. In terms of the port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival of overseas goods is average. In terms of demand, the current terminal enterprises prefer to maintain production just because they need to follow up on goods. The traditional peak season volume was less than expected, while the enthusiasm for downstream goods preparation is further reduced, and the resistance to high price goods is strong. The shipping speed of the merchants slowed down, and the goods in the yard were not smooth.

Future market forecast

At the beginning of November, the spot price of PA66 was stable and weak. The raw material side market remained strong, and the cost side support of PA66 was fair. The load of PA66 enterprises is low, the enterprise’s shipment is stable, and the overall inventory position is rising. The demand side just needs to follow up the goods slowly, and it is expected that PA66 will weaken in the short term due to the lagging consumption.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 3, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8216 yuan/ton, and on October 30 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 8100 yuan/ton), the price increased by 116 yuan/ton, or 1.44%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic propylene glycol market rose slightly this week (10.31-11.3). At the beginning of the week, the propylene glycol market was mainly reorganized and operated, with little change in market news. The propylene glycol market was stable and slightly moved towards the weekend, and the propylene glycol market price in Shandong Province was slightly increased by 100-200 yuan/ton. As of November 3, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 8000-8300 yuan/ton, and the price was increased by 300-600 yuan/ton within the week. The specific analysis of propylene glycol market supply and demand this week is as follows:

In terms of supply, at present, propylene glycol has little spot circulation, the overall supply is tight, logistics is limited and other factors affect the delivery of some propylene glycol plants slowly or temporarily. Therefore, the supply side gives propylene glycol market some support under low pressure of propylene glycol supply.

In terms of demand, currently, propylene glycol downstream demand is mainly purchased on demand. It is said that in the fourth quarter, propylene glycol has been put into production successively. Therefore, some downstream operators have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand side is generally supported by propylene glycol.

Future trend analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol in the market is general, and the preparation of goods is cautious. The propylene glycol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the propylene glycol market tends to adjust the operation of narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose slightly on the second day, with the spot price of 64890 yuan/ton, up 0.8% from the previous trading day, and down 9.03% year on year.

Luntong rose on Tuesday, along with global stock markets and oil prices, as investors bet that central banks would slow the pace of interest rate increases, while the dollar weakened. The copper inventory in mainstream areas across the country increased by 8700 tons to 91900 tons month on month compared with last Friday, and the total inventory was 12000 tons lower than 103900 tons in the same period last year. The operating rate of major large and medium-sized copper rod enterprises in China was about 69.49%, down 0.29 percentage points from last week. This was mainly due to the shortage of electrolytic copper in South China and the limited raw material procurement of several copper rod enterprises, which dragged down the operating rate. The order increment of downstream cables is limited, especially for small and medium-sized cable plants, which have a strong wait-and-see mood and slow down the production pace. In general, domestic spot prices are tight, prices remain high, downstream demand slows down, and short-term copper prices remain high and volatile.