In October, domestic polyester staple fiber prices showed a trend of high opening and low going. According to the price test of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on October 31 was 7792 yuan/ton, 1.70% lower than the price of 7926 at the beginning of the month, 4.28% lower than the same period last year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 6738 (settlement price 6750), down 5.79% from the beginning of the month. This month, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 6.94% to close at 5012, and the main ethylene glycol futures fell 12.55% to close at 3769.

Industrial chain: 1. Although OPEC+cut production more than expected this month, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of interest rate increase is more certain, which curbs the upward momentum of crude oil prices. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main US WTI crude oil futures contract was 86.53 dollars/barrel, up 8.17% for the whole month. 2. In this month, with the restart of the large factory, PTA’s load and supply increased significantly. The terminal demand is weak, and there is a strong expectation of reducing the burden of raw materials when they are used. In addition, the Spring Festival this year is earlier than previous years, and the overall lack of confidence in the future market. PTA price goes down. 3. In this month, some domestic ethylene glycol plants were restarted, and the supply rebounded at a low level, but the overall commencement remained at a relatively low level, and the port inventory accumulated slightly. The terminal order is weak, the weaving operation rate is not high, the downstream operation level falls back, and the accumulated storage pressure at the polyester end increases. Overall, strong supply and weak demand led to lower prices. 4. The yarn market continued to be flat this month, and downstream demand was poor. Finished products continued to accumulate. Yarn mills mainly shipped goods with small orders and short orders. Prices were mostly stable, and prices of some varieties were slightly lowered.

Supply and demand side: some short fiber devices were restarted this month, and the construction started to recover. Jinzhai Xinlun restarted, Jiangyin Huahong, Yizheng Chemical Fiber, Sanfangxiang load increased, and Xinfengming Zhonglei partially reduced production. Downstream losses deepened, inventories were high, and orders were limited, suppressing the demand for staple fibers. The spot price of staple fiber fell all month, and the trend of spot was stronger than that of futures.

Analysts from the business community believe that the market is still evaluating the impact of future crude oil demand prospects and tight supply and other factors on oil prices. It is expected that the crude oil market will remain volatile, and the cost side of polyester staple fiber may remain volatile. The supply and demand of staple fiber are weak in the near future. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will show a weak shock trend in November, but it may have a rebound trend if it is oversold. Pay attention to cost side price change, device restart and downstream orders.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on October 31 was 108.72, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.78% from the peak of 142.64 points (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 28.94% from the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot goods: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly in October. At the beginning of the month, the market mainly reported 2043 yuan/ton, and on the 31st, it mainly reported 2011.25 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of about 1.56%. The water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, stopped production for about 10 days from the 10th due to environmental protection policy requirements in the early stage of this month; In the last ten days of the year, the construction was resumed, and the inventory was sufficient.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose from 166.67 yuan/ton to 186.67 yuan/ton in October. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, and the downstream demand was average. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, giving hydrochloric acid some support; Downstream market declined slightly, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid weakened. According to the analysis, the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the price of domestic LNG fell by about 18.93% this month: the market price of LNG on October 31 was about 5540 yuan/ton, and the average market price on the first day was 6834 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, due to the transportation obstruction, the demand for downstream replenishment turned weak in the middle of the month, and the upstream shipment pressure was high, so the market fell back. According to the analysis, the current intra market trading and investment are flat, the traffic is blocked under the control of the epidemic situation, and the market supply exceeds the demand. It is expected that domestic LNG prices will continue to fall mainly in the short term under the negative factors.

Future forecast: The economic environment is rosy, and the overall demand is not as good as that of previous years. The water treatment market in 2022 is also not as good as that in 2021. Although the raw material cost is well supported, the downstream demand is weak, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the spot inventory is sufficient. In the future, under the expectation of economic downturn and the impact of public health events, the market is expected to continue to be slightly weak.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of flake caustic soda rose overall in October. The average market price of flake caustic soda at the beginning of the month was 4666.67 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was about 4883.33 yuan/ton. The price rose 4.64%, down 16.17% compared with the same period last year. Now the domestic flake alkali market is consolidating.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda fell in October as a whole. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 1238 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was about 1140 yuan/ton. The price fell 7.92%, and the price rose 33.04% compared with the same period last year. According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price is now down. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1170-1300 yuan/ton.

Analysts from the business community believe that the price of flake caustic soda market has been consolidated and operated in the near future, maintaining the early trend, and the market trading is relatively moderate. In general, the price of flake caustic soda may be maintained in the short-term or consolidation operation, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 27, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8100 yuan/ton, and as of October 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 9566 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 1466 yuan/ton, or 15.33%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic propylene glycol market in October showed a weak overall decline. After the National Day holiday, the propylene glycol market began to run down broadly. As of October 13, the market price of propylene glycol dropped to about 8666 yuan/ton, with a drop of more than 9% on the sixth day. Then, the decline of propylene glycol continued, and the effective support in the field was insufficient. In late October, the center of gravity of propylene glycol continued to decline. The main reasons for the continuous decline of propylene glycol market are as follows:

1、 In terms of cost, in the first ten days of October, the raw material propylene oxide market fluctuated, giving propylene glycol a general support. In the last ten days of October, the propylene oxide market continued to decline, giving propylene glycol a loose cost support. In the last ten days, propylene glycol trend “follows the original downward trend”.

2、 In terms of demand, after the National Day holiday, the downstream demand of propylene glycol has always been average, and the purchase has been cautious. Users have replenished in an appropriate amount, and the transmission of propylene glycol supply and demand is slow. Therefore, in the case of weak supply and demand support, the propylene glycol market price has been adjusted downward one after another.

As of October 27, the domestic propylene glycol market price is around 8000-8300 yuan/ton, and the monthly price decrease is around 1000-1600 yuan/ton. At present, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is still strong.

As for the upstream propylene oxide, the domestic propylene oxide market has generally declined since October (10.1-10.26). According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9833.33 yuan/ton on October 26, a decrease of 2.64% compared with that on October 1 (10100 yuan/ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the downstream demand of propylene glycol is generally boosted, and the supply side shipment is positive. The propylene glycol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the propylene glycol market is dominated by weak consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

Recently, the price of the domestic polyurethane fiber market has been stable, and the average price of the 40D specification market was 38000 yuan/ton as of October 26. The spandex industry started at around 6.9%.

Current mainstream price statistics of polyurethane fiber market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D., 30D., 40D

Zhejiang, 38000-43000, 35000-40000, 33000-38000

Shandong, 38000-42000, 36000-38000, 34500-37000

Fujian, 39000-45000, 37000-40000, 35000-38000

Jiangsu, 38000-43000, 35000-40000, 33000-38000

The raw material PTMEG market operates at a high price, and the 1800 molecular weight market offers a price of 21000-23000 yuan/ton. PTMEG industry started more than 70%, but the transportation in Xinjiang is slow, and suppliers still sell at a low price. The pure MDI market has a dip. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is not good. The traders are active in shipping. The market reference is 20600-21000 yuan/t telegraphic transfer barreled self lifting.

At present, the “golden nine and silver ten” in the textile industry is fading away. The downstream just needs to get goods, and the orders are insufficient. At the same time, facing the suppression of the terminal textile and clothing export market, the middle and long term orders are still scarce. At present, about 40% of the round knitting machines have been started, while the warp knitting industry has been maintained at 6-70%.

According to the analysts of the business community, the raw material side pure MDI market fell in shock, and the supporting role was weakened. Downstream commencement remained stable, and demand follow-up was slow. It is expected that the price of spandex will stabilize in the short term and the market will be dominated.