Trade name: TDI

Latest price (March 24): 19775 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is flat compared with the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market is in a stalemate. According to market news, the TDI unit with an annual output of 310000 tons may be stored and overhauled in April. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the raw material supply of the factory in Shanghai is short, the operating rate is reduced, and TDI will not take orders temporarily. In the early stage, the market rose on hearing the news, the on-site offer price was chaotic, while the downstream acceptance was not high. Affected by the epidemic, the logistics traffic was blocked, the demand of the terminal market was weak, and the transaction of new orders was weak. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 19000-19500 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19500-20100 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, the TDI market is in a stalemate, and the specific attention shall be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of business agency, on March 23, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5766 yuan / ton, up 0.58% from last week.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 3045 yuan / ton on March 23 and 2787 yuan / ton on March 18, an increase of 9.24%.

Methanol market rose to support, but affected by the epidemic, the market took goods in general, and paraformaldehyde analysts in business cooperatives expected that the rising space of paraformaldehyde was limited.

On March 22, the rare earth index was 932 points, down 17 points from yesterday, down 7.45% from 1007 points (2022-02-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 243.91% from 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index fell sharply, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series fell, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide fell by 20000 yuan / ton to 1.005 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal fell by 15000 yuan / ton to 1.235 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide fell by 20000 yuan / ton to 1.035 million yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide fell by 30000 yuan / ton to 1.09 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal praseodymium fell by 30000 yuan / ton to 1.335 million yuan / ton, The price of neodymium metal fell by 20000 yuan / ton to 1.36 million yuan / ton, dysprosium oxide fell by 20000 yuan / ton to 2.885 million yuan / ton, dysprosium ferroalloy fell by 30000 yuan / ton to 2.885 million yuan / ton, dysprosium metal price was 3.875 million yuan / ton, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market fell, and the recent procurement was general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market fell, the price of terbium series fell, the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and Myanmar banned export, It is expected that the price of domestic rare earth market will decline in the later period.

Trade name: PC

Latest price (March 21): 22933.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: Recently, the domestic PC market rebounded after the rise. At present, there is no substantive content and change in the negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. The market is worried about the stability of the petrochemical supply chain, the crude oil rebounded after the fall, and the remote support of PC weakened. In terms of supply, some enterprises have started to resume work recently, and the supply side is expected to increase. At present, due to the rebound of domestic health events, the transportation situation and the production of downstream enterprises are affected, the demand progress is shrinking, and the operators are mostly bearish in the future.

Future forecast: it is expected that the PC market may be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fell continuously this week, and the price fell broadly. On March 11, the price of pure benzene was 8400-9000 yuan / ton (the average price was 8840 yuan / ton). On Friday (March 18), the price of pure benzene was 7800-8250 yuan / ton (the average price was 8120 yuan / ton). The average price decreased by 720 yuan / ton or 8.14% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 24.16%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Affected by the decline of crude oil and the wide-ranging shock of Asian pure benzene in the outer disk, the cost support of pure benzene is unstable, superimposed with the weak follow-up of high priced pure benzene in the downstream and weak demand. Pure benzene fell with crude oil this week. Public health incidents in many places in China have affected transportation, limited factory shipments and inventory accumulation. In order to promote shipments, local refining enterprises in Shandong have continuously reduced prices. Although crude oil fell broadly, the price is still high, the cost pressure is prominent, and the operating rate of pure benzene decreased this week.

This week, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene twice, a total of 700 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton.

On the external market, Asian pure benzene rebounded after a wide decline in the external market this week. On Thursday (March 17), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $1131 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of US $77 / ton, or 6.37%; The reference import price in East China was US $1152.5/t, with a year-on-year decrease of US $87.5/t, or 7.06%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rebounded broadly in a single day after falling continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, although the tension between Russia and Ukraine remained, the supply concerns eased. In addition, the market was worried that the excessively rising oil price would affect the demand and economy, and the oil price continued to decline. However, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is uncertain, and the International Energy Agency predicts that Russian oil production may decrease by 3 million barrels / day from April. Concerns about reduced supply have boosted the broad rebound of international oil prices in a single day. As of March 18, Brent fell $4.74 / barrel, or 4.21%; WTI fell $4.63/barrel, or 4.23%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell continuously and broadly this week. The price was 10000 yuan / ton on March 11 and 9020 yuan / ton on March 18, down 9.8% from last week and up 5.29% from the same period last year.

Aniline: the domestic aniline Market was mainly weak and stable this week. The wide range of cost support weakened, and the downstream remained rigid, which needs to be followed up. In terms of supply, during the restart of Jinling aniline plant, Huatai aniline plant operated at reduced load. The support is acceptable, and the price is weak to maintain stability. On March 18, the price in Shandong was 12500-12800 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12800 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and decreased by 11.4% compared with the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, there is still uncertainty about the future trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the risk of oil price rise still exists, and the short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: at present, the spot supply of styrene is relatively abundant. The downstream mainly focuses on digestion contracts, and the spot transaction is weakened. The short-term probability of styrene continues to follow the trend of crude oil.

Under the current geopolitical situation, the trend of crude oil fluctuates violently and is full of uncertainty. It is difficult for pure benzene to get rid of the influence of crude oil in the short term. Domestically, under the influence of cost pressure, the operating rate of pure benzene may still decline; Public health incidents continue to affect logistics and transportation, short-term pure benzene long short game. Pay attention to the downstream market, device dynamics, domestic pure benzene device dynamics, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.