From June 1st to 5th, the domestic BDO price dropped from 8100 yuan/ton to 8303 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.21% during the period, a month on month drop of 4.95%, and a year-on-year drop of 1.25%. The supply and demand pressure in the domestic BDO market still exists, and the poor terminal demand has led to a continuous decline in downstream industry prices and increased cost pressure. Business owners have a bearish attitude towards purchasing and sales, and are negotiating to offer discounts on actual orders, resulting in a volatile downward market trend.
In terms of supply and equipment, there are frequent fluctuations in the equipment sector, leading to a decline in industry capacity utilization and an increase in supply side support. And the online auction transaction reached a high of 7950 yuan/ton, enhancing the supplier’s market stability mentality. The positive impact of BDO supply has weakened.
In terms of cost and calcium carbide, the domestic price of calcium carbide has decreased, and some production enterprises have accumulated inventory. In order to accelerate shipments, some enterprises are flexible in their shipments. In terms of methanol, the price of methanol continues to rise, and inland factories are concentrated in pre-sales and exceeding orders, which has hindered the transportation and loading of vehicles in many places. The downward trend in the raw material calcium carbide market and the upward trend in the methanol market have had a mixed impact on BDO costs.
On the demand side and downstream side, there is no significant improvement in downstream demand at the terminal. In the situation of supply-demand contradiction and poor cost transmission, downstream industries offer discounts and promotions, leading to a decline in market conditions in most industries. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: raw material calcium carbide will decline, methanol will fluctuate within a certain range, and BDO cost pressure will weaken. The downstream PBT and PBAT industries will experience a decline in load and a reduction in demand in the next period. Overall, BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market will operate weakly.
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