The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on December 15 is 5000 yuan / ton.

In terms of inventory, as of December 13, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 621000 tons, a decrease of 0500 tons or 0.08% compared with last Monday, and an increase of 11900 tons or 1.95% compared with last Thursday.

On December 14, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 4927.5 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day and 31.5 yuan / ton compared with last week.

In the afternoon, Meg’s external market was cautious. Recently, the ship’s offer was around 655 US dollars / ton, the delivery was around 650 US dollars / ton, and the negotiation was about 650 US dollars / ton or slightly above. The operating load of domestic units increased, and the operating load of ethylene glycol increased compared with the previous trading day, but the demand side of the downstream polyester industry was weak, and the operating load decreased. Moreover, at present, there are still many uncertain factors caused by the epidemic in East China, and ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (December 14): 8620 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business society, on December 14, the main PVC contract 2205 closed at 8258, up 2.06%, and the spot market price fell by 0.46% compared with the previous day. At present, the mainstream price is 8300-8900 yuan tons. The offer of the holder continues to decline, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Although the futures price rebounded to a certain extent, it has limited impact on the spot market, and the demand in the off-season is weakened, Enterprises have a strong positive mood for shipment.

Forecast: PVC is expected to continue its downward trend in the short term.

Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (December 13): 15533.33 yuan / ton

On December 13, the market price of epichlorohydrin increased by 0.87% compared with last Friday, decreased by 3.72% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and decreased by 21.55% compared with the price on November 13. Recently, the price of raw material propylene is weak, the glycerol market is weak, the cost support is general, some plant units are shut down, and the downstream just needs to follow up. At the beginning of the week, the market mentality was cautious and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may adjust its operation steadily, moderately and slightly.

DOTP prices fell slightly

According to the data monitoring of business society, the DOTP price fell slightly this week, and the overall DOTP market fell slowly. As of December 10, the price of DOTP was 10575 yuan / ton, down 2.98% from 10900 yuan / ton last weekend (December 3); DOTP prices fell slightly this week, and the decline of DOTP market slowed down.

Isooctanol price volatility weakened

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol market continued its downward trend this week. During the week, the price of isooctanol factory rose and fell inconsistently. On Monday and Tuesday, downstream customers made up stocks on bargain hunting. In addition, the sharp rise in crude oil price boosted the customer’s mentality, and the price of isooctanol rose slightly; After that, the inventory pressure was released, but the buyer carefully purchased the high-end price in the market, the trading volume of new orders in the market decreased one after another, the negotiation of high price spot was deadlocked, the bearish mentality on the floor increased again, and the price of isooctanol fell again in the second half of the week. Downstream customers generally purchase, the transaction of isooctanol is cold, the cost of plasticizer DOTP decreases, and DOTP has great downward pressure.

PTA prices rose first and then fell

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the sharp rise in the international crude oil price stimulated the PTA price to follow up, and the positive support on the cost side remained. Moreover, the PTA unit was planned to enter the maintenance, and the PTA price increased slightly. However, in the off-season of the PTA market, the demand was not followed up enough, the PTA price increase space was limited, and the PTA price fell slightly on Friday. The rise in raw material prices and DOTP costs is good for the DOTP market.

PVC market fell slightly

According to the price monitoring of business society, the PVC market fell slightly this week, and the PVC price fluctuated and fell this week. PVC disk was weak, futures PVC prices fell, and the spot market was cold. The PVC market fell, weakening the positive and negative effects on the DOP market.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the price of DOTP raw materials rebounded and adjusted this week, PTA price rebounded and rose, isooctanol price rose first and then fell, the decline of DOTP cost slowed down, and the downward pressure of DOTP weakened; On the demand side, the price of PVC fell, the PVC market was weak and downward, the demand for plasticizer was cold, and the downward pressure of DOTP was large. Overall, the downward pressure of plasticizer DOTP weakened this week, the upward momentum still exists, and the decline of DOTP price slowed down; However, the demand for Plasticizer in the future is insufficient, and the future DOTP market is dominated by weak operation.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has experienced twists and turns this week, with an overall downward trend. This week, the mainstream ex factory average price of isooctanol in Shandong fell from 10933.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 10900.00 yuan / ton on December 6, a decrease of 0.30%, then rose to 11000.00 yuan / ton on December 8, an increase of 0.92%, and finally fell to 10700.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.73%, a year-on-year increase of 7.36%. Overall, Shandong isooctanol market fell slightly this week. On December 10, the isooctanol commodity index was 78.68, down 1.47 points from yesterday, down 42.78% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 123.84% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is enhanced and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong fell this week: Jianlan chemical offered about 10700 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which fell by 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend, mainly contract; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 10700 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 10700 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 300 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose first and then fell this week. The quotation first rose from 7458.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 7562.17 yuan / ton on December 8, an increase of 1.39%, and then fell to 7505.50 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.75%, down 8.15% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. The DOP price dropped from 10850.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 10550.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 2.76%, up 9.14% year-on-year over the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In mid December, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly, mainly falling. The upstream propylene rose slightly and the cost support was strengthened, but there was a downward trend at the weekend. At the same time, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, the downstream market continued to decline, and there was no sign of improvement in demand. According to isooctanol analysts of business society, in mid December, Shandong isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly.