Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market rose in early December, and the spot price rose. As of December 2, the average offer price of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 20166.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.51% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the recent methanol market is at a low level. With the decline of coal price, the support of methanol cost is weakened, and some methanol units are restored, the supply side is abundant. The price focus of the domestic methanol market continued to fall, unable to support the formaldehyde market, and formaldehyde fell. At present, the downstream is generally affected by environmental protection control, and the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is expected to decline slightly.

Upstream formaldehyde continued to fall, and POM cost side support weakened. In terms of industry load, the recent domestic operating rate is affected by Yuntianhua maintenance, and the market supply is expected to be reduced. Moreover, the enterprise inventory is still low, the on-site supply remains tight, and the supply side is good for the spot price. Shenhuaning coal mc90 is quoted at a reference price of about 19600 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. The reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 20000 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 20900 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. I’ve heard that there is resistance to traders’ shipment and there is a certain order transfer operation.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market rose this week, the upstream formaldehyde market continued to decline, and the cost support of POM was weak. The on-site supply is expected to shrink again, but the spot price affects the procurement operation of downstream enterprises. At present, the trading tends to take small orders. The terminal enterprises just need to maintain production, the market atmosphere is relatively light, and there is a certain pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the rise of POM market may be hindered in the short term.

This month, the domestic market price of butyl acetate continued to decline, mainly affected by the weak cost and weak demand caused by the decline of upstream acetic acid. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate fell by 14.7% in the month. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 10400-10600 yuan / ton. At present, butyl acetate has entered the process of continuous bottom exploration.

First of all, in terms of the upstream acetic acid market, the acetic acid price continued to rise in the first half of the month, mainly due to the tightening of supply, the extension and load reduction in Shaanxi, the shutdown and maintenance of Jiangsu Thorpe, the gradual easing of the industry inventory pressure, and the upward shift of the focus of acetic acid trading. The price of acetic acid began to decline in the middle and late part of the year. Although the Jiangsu Thorpe plant was shut down, there was a large amount of inventory accumulated in the early stage, the market entered the de inventory cycle, and some downstream entered the off-season in winter. The purchase of raw materials was mainly rational, and most of the contracts and Inventory were digested.

In addition, in terms of upstream n-butanol, according to the monitoring of business society, n-butanol also fluctuated lower in November, with a decrease of 11.0%. The transaction performance of n-butanol market in Shandong is relatively light, the downstream plants are generally started, and the demand is mainly to maintain the rigid demand. The cost decline caused by the decline of acetic acid and n-butanol continued to be bad for butyl acetate.

In terms of supply and demand, the operating rate of major manufacturers is high this month, and the market supply is sufficient. Under the pressure of inventory, the prices of major manufacturers fell again and again, with a cumulative decline of more than 1000 yuan in the whole month. The manufacturer’s shipment speed is weak, and the price support psychology is weakened, which has a significant impact on the market. In addition, traders are not active in taking goods, and downstream factories on the demand side are only limited to just need to buy. Market trading is not active, demand follow-up is insufficient, and the market has not substantially improved.

Future forecast: in the short term, the cost side may still be not good, and the supply side is also relatively sufficient. Although the load of enterprises is reduced in the latter ten days, the social inventory is still high due to weak demand, and it is still in the stock removal stage in the later stage. It is expected that the recent ethyl acetate Market is still weak.

Data monitoring shows that China’s natural rubber market continued to fluctuate in the second half of November (16-30), and the increase range has expanded near the weekend. The price of China’s domestic standard 1 spot rubber was quoted at 14240 yuan / ton in East China market on the 16th and 13890 yuan / ton on the 30th, down 2.46%; The highest price this week is 14360 yuan / ton, the lowest point is 13890 yuan / ton at the weekend, and the maximum amplitude is the decline of 3.27% in that week.

The factors affecting the market in the second half of the month are:

1. Macro: since November, crude oil prices have fallen sharply. WTI crude oil fell by 18.45% and Brent crude oil fell by 14.49%; The crude oil analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the impact of the new virus will continue to ferment, the epidemic in Europe will become more and more intense, and the oil price will be in a short atmosphere. However, the oversold on Friday also basically digested the bad expectations, and it is unlikely that the oil price will continue to fall sharply. At present, the market focus is mainly on the OPEC + meeting to be held next week. Overall, oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the possibility of continued bottoming cannot be ruled out.

2. Supply side: production area: Southeast Asia is affected by bad weather and frequent rainfall, which affects the local rubber cutting and raw rubber supply. For example, Thai media reported on November 26 that Thailand continues to issue flood warning in the South; As the northeast monsoon is strong and water vapor continues to be brought from the Gulf of Thailand, there is a fear of heavy rainfall in southern Thailand until 30 days ago. Eight governments such as Chunpeng must pay attention to the flood caused by accumulated precipitation; Secondly, a new type of deciduous disease broke out in rubber trees in Thailand. According to Thai media reports on November 29, jessada, director of Thai Rubber Research Institute, revealed that a new type of deciduous disease broke out in rubber trees in jianzhuwen and Dalat provinces in eastern Thailand, with a sick rubber forest area of more than 100 Lai. China’s rubber production areas in Yunnan began to stop cutting one after another, and Hainan stopped cutting at the end of the year. Affected by the cold wave weather, the cutting stop date may come ahead of schedule. In general, the significant reduction of domestic and foreign supply has significantly supported the rubber price. Output data: the October report recently released by ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber output will increase by 1.8% year-on-year to 13.836 million tons in 2021. Among them, Thailand decreased by 3.9%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, China increased by 22.9%, India increased by 15.3%, Vietnam slightly increased by 0.3% and Malaysia increased by 3%. In October, the global output of natural rubber is expected to drop by 0.6% to 1331000 tons. Among them, Thailand decreased by 2.4%, Indonesia increased by 4.7%, Vietnam decreased by 1.7% and Malaysia increased by 20.1%.

3. Downstream: operating rate data: the data show that the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong last week was 66.00%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points over last week, a decrease of 9.35 percentage points over the same period last year and 2.06 percentage points over the same period in 2019. The operating load of semi steel tire was 62.25%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points over last week, a decrease of 9.04 percentage points over the same period last year and 6.56 percentage points over the same period in 2019. Consumption data: according to the October report recently released by ANRPC, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 8.3% year-on-year to 14.028 million tons in 2021. Among them, China increased by 5.4%, India increased by 14.4%, Thailand decreased by 4.6% and Malaysia decreased by 2.4%. In October, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to decline by 3.7% to 1141000 tons. Among them, China decreased by 9.3%, India by 23.1%, Thailand by 9.5% and Malaysia by 7.2%. Tire data: according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s rubber tire output in October was 73.071 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. From January to October, the output of rubber tire casing increased by 13.8% over the same period of the previous year to 73845.2 million. Auto data: on November 24, according to the data of China passenger Federation, the overall retail sales of narrow passenger car market in the third week of November reached 49000 vehicles per day, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and the performance was relatively improved, a decrease of 6% compared with the third week of October this year. Due to the obvious improvement of production in October, the retail recovery in November should be obvious, but the current recovery speed is still not fast, which is similar to that in 2019, and it is also a good performance.

4. In terms of inventory: the warehouse receipts increased significantly in the previous period. Statistics show that as of November 26, Tianjiao warehouse receipts were 1404700 tons, an increase of 12300 tons on a weekly basis. The total inventory of the exchange was 188350 tons, an increase of 8827 tons on a weekly basis; The No. 20 rubber warehouse receipt was 41671 tons, an increase of 91 tons. The total inventory of the exchange was 5259200 tons, an increase of 2006 tons on a weekly basis. The inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to go to the warehouse. Due to the poor shipping, most of the orders delayed in the early stage did not arrive at the port as scheduled; As the start-up of the tire factory has picked up, the inventory has increased.

5. Import and export: China: in October, China exported 342300 tons of all steel tires, 10.33% month on month, 0.32% year on year. From January to October, China exported 3.0714 million tons, 12.05% year on year; In October, the half steel tire was 182400 tons, with a month on month ratio of – 5.6% and a year-on-year ratio of – 1.3%. From January to October, the cumulative export was 1905500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year ratio of 19.45%. Thailand: in the first 10 months of 2021, Thailand exported 2.778 million tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber), a year-on-year increase of 30%, and 3.762 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber, a year-on-year increase of 7%; The total export to China was 1.975 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%.

6. Policy: India: according to foreign media reports on November 26, once the price difference of fresh latex is 2 rupees per kilogram higher than that of rss4, the rubber board of India will provide subsidies to rubber farmers according to the price difference. The Bureau has taken measures to strengthen film production to fill the shortage in the domestic market. Thailand: according to the news from Thailand on November 24, Zhu Lin, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce of Thailand, stressed that we should continue to promote the third year income security plan to help farmers, fight back against the claim that the prices of all crops have fallen, and pointed out that the price of cup glue (DRC 50%) is higher than the guaranteed price.

7. Tire price increase: under the comprehensive influence of environmental protection, power restriction, rising raw material prices and other factors, tire manufacturers at home and abroad have issued tire price increase notices, such as Zhongce Rubber, Linglong tire, Zhengxin tire, Fengshen tire, Qingdao Shuangxing, Qingdao Jianxin united, Zhongda & Haoyu rubber, Hubei outlets, Pu linchengshan, GM, etc.

Future forecast: natural disasters have occurred frequently in Southeast Asia recently, and it is reported that La Nina will reach the peak from the end of next month to January 2022. Another report said that a new type of Defoliation Disease broke out in the rubber forests of Tsim Chuk Mun and Dalat Prefecture in Thailand, affecting the rubber cutting rate in many ways; At the same time, China’s domestic rubber began to stop cutting, and the natural rubber supply side played a supporting role in the market; The latest data show that the demand of downstream tire manufacturers has rebounded slightly; Rubber producing countries such as India provide subsidies to rubber farmers; Several tire manufacturers issued price increase notices; In addition, the epidemic, especially Omicron, has a great impact on the world. The terminal market is depressed and the freight industry is depressed. To sum up, various factors not only support the rubber trend, but also the overall impact of macro factors this month and the sharp weakening of crude oil and coal on bulk commodities. It is expected that natural rubber will maintain the range shock trend, and the continuous weakening risk caused by recent external system risks will not be ruled out in the short term.

Crude oil fell “cliff style”, a new variant virus in South Africa triggered a huge wave in the market, and US oil plunged 13%, the largest decline since April last year. As of the close of last Friday (November 26), the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $10.24, or 13.1%, to $68.15/barrel. London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil (ice) futures fell $9.5, or 11.6%, to $72.72/barrel.

Under the heavy fall of crude oil, today (November 29) all products of PTA industrial chain fell, with PTA main futures down 4.89%, ethylene glycol main futures down 4.37%, staple fiber main futures down 5.72%, and the spot market also showed fatigue.

The domestic PTA spot market fell sharply, and the average market price was 4619 yuan / ton, down 3.31% from the previous day and up 38.14% year-on-year. Honggang petrochemical and Yadong petrochemical units are about to be overhauled, and the start-up of domestic PTA units will decline, but it will remain at the high level of 81.71%. In addition, the downstream polyester plant reduced production, the demand side was expected to decline, and the supply showed a slight accumulation of stocks. The short-term cost support collapsed, superimposed with the expectation of production reduction in many mainstream polyester factories, and there is still pressure on PTA supply and demand. It is expected that the short-term PTA price will remain mainly downward.

The decline of ethylene glycol market is still the main theme, which is closely related to the sharp decline of coal price. Under the manipulation of early funds, the chemical industry as a whole is divorced from the fundamentals, and excessive fanatical speculation leads to policy intervention. The market gradually returns to rationality. Ethylene prices also weakened slightly and the cost side was under pressure. The performance of terminal demand orders is poor, PTA continues to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle, and the production reduction plan of polyester plant is implemented. However, at the same time, some units are overhauled, and the demand side is intertwined with long space. However, at present, all ethylene glycol processes have lost production. If the price continues to decline, it may frustrate the enterprise’s production enthusiasm, so the downward space is limited.

Last week, the price of polyester staple fiber rose briefly due to the rise of cost in the short term, but it was only a flash in the pan due to various factors. At present, the price of 1.4d * 38mm is 7243 yuan / ton, down 11.02% from the beginning of November and up 26.23% year-on-year. The downstream pure polyester yarn market is weak, the consumer terminal has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, the transaction is cold, the local power restriction policy has basically ended, and the downstream textile manufacturers are mainly just in need of procurement, lacking large order support. In November and December, most yarn factories need to pay production costs, and the capital flow is generally tight. They have reduced the procurement of polyester staple fiber and other raw materials. It is expected that the short-term polyester staple fiber will still show a weak shock situation without substantial improvement in supply and demand.

Polyester filament market is promoted by mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Today, individual specifications are reduced by 100-200 yuan / ton. The quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7200-7650 yuan / ton, that of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 8900-9300 yuan / ton, and that of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 7400-7850 yuan / ton. The performance of orders in the terminal market is still weak, customers’ intention to take goods is not high, and the overall market trading atmosphere is light. From the end of this month, some weaving factories plan to continue to shut down and reduce the burden. The pressure on the cost side increases, the mentality of the terminal weaving factory tends to be cautious, and the bad conditions in the upstream and downstream are superimposed. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will remain weak in the short term.

In November, the domestic MTBE market fluctuated at a low level and fluctuated slightly. It rebounded slowly after a sharp decline at the beginning of the month, but it still showed a downward trend compared with the beginning of the month. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE at the beginning of the month was 6500 yuan / ton, and the market price of MTBE at the end of the month was 6410 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.38% and a year-on-year increase of 68.68%.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in October 2021, there were 12 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 10 commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 62.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (29.09%), fuel oil (22.54%) and diesel (15.00%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were power coal (- 11.99%), methanol (- 7.27%) and petroleum coke (- 3.69%). The average increase and decrease this month was 6.93%.

Monthly K column chart of MTBE domestic production price:

Weekly K column chart of MTBE domestic production price:

At the beginning of the month, the MTBE market continued to decline, and some manufacturers lowered their factory quotations for many times during the week, with a decline of about 400-750 yuan / ton. Brent crude oil price fell to a low of US $81.99/barrel, which gave some negative impact on commodities. Due to the epidemic, travel restrictions in some areas, gasoline sales weakened, and gasoline prices also fell step by step due to the decline of crude oil. Recently, due to poor sales, various inventories have increased to varying degrees. Considering the inventory, businesses have offered profits for promotion.

In the middle of the month, the MTBE market rose first and then fluctuated and sorted out. At the beginning of the week, some production enterprises raised the ex factory quotation, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton. After the price of MTBE fell to a low level last week, it attracted some downstream businesses to replenish goods on bargain hunting, and the shipment of businesses improved. With the support of the rise of crude oil and raw materials over the weekend, the MTBE market in Shandong led the market again. In the middle and later part of the week, the downstream demand was limited, the sales pressure of merchants remained, and the price rise of MTBE market was weak, resulting in shock consolidation.

In late June, the MTBE market rose first and then fluctuated and sorted out. At the beginning of the week, some production enterprises raised the ex factory quotation, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton. Gasoline prices are rising. Gasoline prices rose by 100-200 yuan / ton this week. Its own sales are getting better, and the demand for raw materials is increasing. The bidding of local refineries is increasing this week, and the demand is increasing. Some devices in Shandong and Northeast China are still under maintenance. Due to the impact of the epidemic in Northeast China recently, the supply of goods to the south is scarce and the supply is limited, supporting businesses to actively explore the rise. Supported by the above positive parties, MTBE prices continued to rise this week.

At the end of the month, the MTBE market was first depressed and then raised, and closed down at the weekend, with an overall slight decline of 50-100 yuan / ton compared with last week. After the price rose to a high level last week, there was resistance in the downstream and took a wait-and-see attitude towards high priced raw materials. In addition, the international crude oil fell sharply one after another, and the gasoline and raw material market also fell, resulting in pressure on MTBE businesses, which had no choice but to follow the decline, with a decline of about 100-150 yuan / ton.

Comparison chart of crude oil (upstream raw material) and MTBE price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of MTBE and gasoline (downstream products) price trend of business agency:

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on November 25, the closing price of Asian MTBE market decreased by US $6 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $833-835 / T. The closing price of European MTBE market decreased by US $10 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $863.75-864.25/t. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the U.S. MTBE market is closed and has no closing price.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia FOB Singapore USD 833-835 / ton – USD 6 / ton

U.S.A FOB Bay Thanksgiving holiday /

Europe FOB ARA USD 863.75-864.25/ton – USD 10 / ton

In terms of enterprises, as of November 26, the 200000 t / a isomerization unit of Shandong Chengtai chemical had been started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 100 yuan / ton to 6400 yuan / ton. Shi dashenghua’s MTBE quotation is reduced by 100 yuan / ton to 6400 yuan / ton. The 400000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation co production 350000 t MTBE unit of Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 50 yuan / T to 6450 yuan / T. The MTBE quotation of Lihua Yijin Petrochemical is reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 6400 yuan / ton. The 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Dongming Qianhai chemical started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 100 yuan / T to 6400 yuan / T.

The trend of crude oil is unstable and the market is strong; Downstream on-demand procurement, mainly merchant shipment. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may be mainly sorted out in the short term.