According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the market of dichloromethane rose slightly this week (7.12-7.16). As of July 16, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 3940 yuan / ton, up 0.42% from 3923 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, film, diluent, foaming agent and other downstream still have a certain rigid demand, which also forms a certain support for dichloromethane.

The price of raw material liquid chlorine is at a low level, the price of methanol is in a narrow range, and the cost support becomes weak. According to the business news agency, as of July 16, the price of methanol was 2535 yuan / ton, slightly changed from 2530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The main factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province is about 1050 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business community methane chloride data analysts believe that although the demand has some support, on the one hand, the cost side support becomes weak, on the other hand, the supply side pressure does not reduce, on the whole, the later dichloromethane market is more likely to weaken.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell first and then rose this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 696733.33 yuan / ton, up 0.25% from 69496.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 20.22% from the beginning of the year, and up 35.99% from the same period last year. This week, LME copper first suppressed and then rose in March, closing at US $9455, down 0.40% for the week; This week, the Shanghai copper index was in a narrow range, closing at 69430 yuan, up 0.59%. This week, the international copper index closed at 61830 yuan, up 1.00%.

Recently, copper prices mainly fluctuated in a narrow range. The drop of reserve requirement on Friday led copper futures to open higher on Monday. However, the slightly weak domestic economic data and continuous overseas trading led copper prices to callback. At the end of the week, affected by the dovish stance of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, copper futures strengthened again, and the overall trend of the week fluctuated. This week, the domestic refined copper storage is still in the downward channel. Under the background of the recent tightening of scrap copper supply and refinery production disturbance, the removal of refined copper storage is expected to continue. Consumption has a certain resilience. The recent recovery of demand in the cable field, which started the weakest in the first half of the year, may weaken the off-season effect of consumption in the third quarter. TC continued to pick up, refined copper output grew faster, and imports slowed down. It is expected that the copper price will still fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of bulk commodities, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 19350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 23333.33 yuan / ton in the middle of the month. The price increased by 20.59% in half a month.

2、 Market analysis

Since July, the price of yellow phosphorus has been in a high consolidation stage. Recently, affected by the power rationing in Yunnan, the price of yellow phosphorus has risen again, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has declined, and the spot market is tight. The main manufacturers have issued early orders, and some manufacturers have temporarily stopped quoting. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 22000-25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Sichuan is about 24000-25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Guizhou is about 20000-22000 yuan / ton. Due to the rapid rise in prices, the market more wait-and-see, manufacturers send early orders, new orders are limited.

In terms of phosphate rock, in early July, China’s phosphate rock market as a whole was in a high level, and the supply of mines in Guizhou was tight. Phosphate rock manufacturers expected that the price of phosphate rock would continue to move towards the high end. On July 12, Guizhou phosphate rock enterprises took the lead in raising the initial and high-end grade price of phosphate rock by 20-50 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, the reference price of 30% grade in Guizhou is 490-510 yuan / ton, and that of 28% grade in Guizhou is 440-470 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 550 yuan / ton, Compared with the previous working day, the one-day increase was 3.77%. At present, the spot supply of phosphorus ore market is still tight, some mining enterprises in Guizhou are in a state of shortage, and the overall market quotation is high and firm. As of July 12, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei area is about 510-530 yuan / ton. Compared with early July, the market price of phosphorus ore in Guangxi has also been increased by 20-30 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of 28% grade phosphate rock factory in Guangxi is around 430-470 yuan / ton, and that of 30% grade phosphate rock factory is around 470-510 yuan / ton. The overall phosphorus ore market is running at a high level.

In terms of coke, the coke market as a whole is weak, the expected scope of production limit of downstream steel plants is expanded, the purchasing enthusiasm is reduced, the coke supply is gradually relaxed, and the price mentality is strong. As of July 14, the mainstream price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2950 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day and flat compared with the same period last month.

Phosphoric acid and phosphate markets are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, phosphoric acid market rises sporadically, with good trading volume, and actual transaction is mainly through negotiation. Glyphosate was acceptable to high valence yellow phosphorus, and played a supporting role to high valence yellow phosphorus.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus has gone up sharply at present. In Yunnan Province, power rationing, yellow phosphorus production reduction, spot yellow phosphorus market is basically out of stock, yellow phosphorus Market tension intensified. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of July 14, the average factory price reference of domestic butanone market was 9133 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on July 1 (reference price of butanone was 8100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1033 yuan / ton, or 12.76%.

Since the beginning of July, butanone factories in Shandong and Lanzhou have entered the period of maintenance. The domestic butanone market in East China is short of spot supply, and the supply pressure is low in the inventory area. The downstream is purchased on demand. The overall trading atmosphere is good, the confidence of the industry is increasing, and the industry is reluctant to sell. Therefore, the market price of butanone keeps rising in early July, As of July 14, the quotation of butanone market in Shandong area was high and firm, and the factory quotation of Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Company was 9200 yuan / ton. The market of butanone in Jiangsu is stable, and the factory reference price of butanone is about 9000-9200 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, on July 14, the average factory price of domestic butanone market was 9133 yuan / ton, up nearly 13% compared with the price at the beginning of the month.

On July 14, the civil LPG market in North China was generally stable, with a slight rise in some cases. The downstream just needed to enter the market, with general enthusiasm. The civil LPG market in Northeast China continued to be stable, with little change. The market transaction atmosphere was general. The mainstream price of civil gas was 4050-4250 yuan / ton. The civil LPG market in Shandong Province was generally stable, with an increase in some cases, The atmosphere of market transaction is mild. The manufacturer’s shipment is moderate. The reference price of civil gas in Dongying area is 4350-4430 yuan / ton, and the price is expected to be stable tomorrow.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, after butanone rose to a high level, the downstream orders decreased, and the purchase of butanone just at the beginning of this month was gradually ended. Therefore, butanone analysts of business community believe that in the short term, the market price of butanone will continue to rise weakly, and most of them will be consolidated at a high level.

The recent trend of isooctanol price

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream factory quotation of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose from 15700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 15833.33 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 0.85%, up 112.05% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of isooctanol rose slightly this week, with the isooctanol commodity index of 116.42 on July 9.

Downstream demand rose, isooctanol rose again

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers this week increased: Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. has not quoted isooctanol this week; Lihuayi offered 16100 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which was up 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualuhengsheng offered 16200 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which was up 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the raw material market in the upstream of isooctanol fell slightly this week, with the quotation falling from 7804.91 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7796.73 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 0.10%, up 13.13% compared with the same period last year. The price of upstream raw materials market is high consolidation, which has a positive effect on the price of isooctanol due to the influence of supply and demand.

The downstream market of isooctanol, DOP factory prices rose slightly this week. DOP quotation rose from 13400.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13550.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 1.12%, up 86.47% compared with the same period last year. The downstream DOP price increased slightly, the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement increased, and the demand for isooctanol was strengthened.

Demand is increasing and the market is bullish

In mid July, Shandong isooctanol market trend or a small fluctuation rose. Overall, the recent start-up of isooctanol units has led to an increase in the overall operating rate of the industry, sufficient spot supply of isooctanol, better downstream market and stronger demand. Therefore, analysts of isooctanol of business agency believe that the domestic market of isooctanol will rise slightly in mid July.