1、 Price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of diethylene glycol product)

According to the data of business news agency, on July 9, the average p value of diethylene glycol market price was 6066 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton from last Friday, down 0.16%.

On Tuesday, the price range of glycol fluctuated, Sinopec’s ex factory quotation in East China was temporarily stable, and Sinopec’s ex factory quotation in South China was increased by 100 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of July 8, the total inventory of diethylene glycol in East China’s main ports was 20000 tons, an increase of 0900 tons or 4.71% over last Wednesday. The total amount of diethylene glycol delivered in Zhangjiagang mainstream reservoir area was 1350 tons, 498 tons lower than the previous working day.

Sinopec’s South China unit runs smoothly. At present, the production line of diethylene glycol of PetroChina northeast Jilin Petrochemical Company is shut down for maintenance, and it is expected to restart in late July. It is mainly supplied to users in Northeast China, most of them are produced and used by themselves, and the export volume is small.

3、 Analysis and forecast

The downstream trading atmosphere is general, production and sales are light, and the inventory of products has not been effectively reduced. On the supply side of the market, the import volume and domestic volume of the terminal increased slowly, the daily delivery volume of the terminal decreased, and the inventory picked up slightly. The overall performance of the market demand side is weak. It is expected that the short-term diethylene glycol market will continue to run in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PP market fluctuated and went down in early July, and the spot prices of various brands fell on the whole. As of July 9, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8516.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.97% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 5.58% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene domestic (Shandong) market fell slightly in early July, with an average price of 7796 yuan / ton on the 9th, down 0.1% in the week. The recent propylene market performance is tepid, the price change is not big, individual manufacturers price adjustment. By the end of this week, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market was 7700-7800 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchased on demand. The market transaction was fair and the price was firm. Propylene analysts from chemical branch of business society think: long short game, uncertainty of crude oil market, pay close attention to the future market changes. If the cost side does not fluctuate significantly, and the downstream demand supports, propylene is expected to fluctuate upward in the near future.

Upstream propylene market narrow decline, PP cost side support slightly weakened. At present, the average operating rate of the industry has increased compared with the end of last month, and the market supply shows an increasing trend. At the same time, domestic drawing PP inventory also increased, two barrels of oil PP increased by more than 14% compared with last week. In terms of demand, the operating rate of terminal enterprises has decreased, the purchasing operation just needs to be followed up, and the actual orders are mostly low turnover. Part of the sellers make profit to ship, but there is support from the price rise of PP outside the market, and the sellers’ willingness to make profit is limited on the whole.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 9, the mainstream offer of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) was similar to that of wire drawing materials, with a price of about 8583.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.53% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 8.19% compared with the same period last year. At present, the demand of fiber PP is not large, and the profit of downstream enterprises is general. The consumption of diapers and other products in the domestic market has gradually returned to a stable level, and the manufacturers of spunbonded non-woven fabrics and Spunlaced non-woven fabrics in the direct downstream tend to follow up passively and take whatever they use. At the end of this week, domestic fiber PP production accounted for more than 11%, up from the previous.

Meltblown materials, meltblown PP market continued weak market in early July, spot prices softened. As of July 9, the average quotation of domestic pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 9600 yuan / ton. The saturation of domestic melt blown fabric manufacturing market is high. In the medium term, the situation of melt blown PP production enterprises leaving the market is more prominent. At present, there are few devices that are still shipping. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, and the situation of saturated demand for medical protective equipment is relatively stable. In terms of overseas epidemic situation, the epidemic situation in some neighboring countries in Asia Pacific region of China is deep and long-term, forming a certain epidemic prevention pressure on neighboring countries and regions. During this period, the demand of overseas epidemic prevention market for oxygen generator and other equipment related products increased, and the pulling effect on melt blown PP industry was not obvious. The demand for meltblown materials is difficult to expand, and it is expected that the price will continue to be weak.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe that: in early July, the domestic polypropylene market overall narrow weakening. The operation rate of downstream enterprises is not high and the demand is short. Weak purchasing follow-up and poor response to high price supply. The upstream raw material propylene also fell slightly, and the support of PP cost side was not weakened. Polymerization plants and businesses are still willing to support the price. It is expected that PP price will fluctuate in the short term.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of July 8, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 13466.67 yuan / ton, up 3.06% compared with the price on July 1 and 2.02% compared with the price on June 1.

In June, epichlorohydrin market fluctuated, showing a downward trend as a whole, with a monthly decrease of 1.01%. In July, the market trend of epichlorohydrin is rising. At present, some units are shut down for maintenance, the market spot supply is reduced, the market mentality is better, the goods holders are reluctant to sell at low prices, the market spot negotiation price is higher, the market supply is tight, and the purchasing mentality is supporting, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is improved.

Import and export data of epichlorohydrin from January to may 2021 (unit: kg)

As for upstream propylene, according to the data of business club’s block list, as of July 7, the reference price of propylene was 7818.55, down 0.17% compared with July 1 (7832.18). At present, there is no great pressure on the supply side, the demand side is fair, and the price is mainly stable.

For downstream epoxy resin, on July 7, the focus of East China’s liquid epoxy resin negotiation moved up, and the local market mainstream negotiation offered 26000-26500 yuan / ton, with raw materials rising and the focus of market negotiation going up.

Business community epichlorohydrin analysts believe that, in general, the recent decrease in epichlorohydrin supply has formed a support for the market. In the case of tight spot, the commodity holders have a strong mentality, strong willingness to push up, and the market buying has improved. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will move upward in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of June 30, the average factory price reference of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 6866 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 1200 yuan / T, or 21.18% compared with the price of June 1, 2021 (reference price: 5666 yuan / ton).

From the business data monitoring chart, it can be seen that in June, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate in China has risen greatly. The increase in the month was over 21%. Since the early June, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market saw the first significant increase in the month, up 800-1000 yuan / ton. The main support for the upward market is that the demand for DMC in Anhui Province is reduced, the market supply is reduced, and the spot is tight. The price of dimethyl carbonate keeps rising. As of June 15, the average factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate rose to 6933 yuan / T, up more than 22% compared with the beginning of June.

In the middle of June, the overall plant operating rate was still low, the supply of dimethyl carbonate continued to be tight, and the demand side was good, the investment atmosphere was moderate, and the price of dimethyl carbonate continued to run at a high level.

In late June, under the high level, the enthusiasm of inquiry downstream of DMC was weakened, while the market of dimethyl carbonate was weak and declined slightly, but the supply side pressure was still small. Therefore, the overall market maintained stable operation after a small reduction. As of June 30, according to the monitoring of business agency data, the average factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was 6866 yuan / ton, compared with that in early June, The average price rose 1200 yuan / ton, up 21.18% in the month.

In the upstream of propylene oxide, the market of propylene oxide has been steadily rising since late June, and the price of propylene oxide has been stable on the 30th. Due to the influence of logistics and commencement policies, the supply of epichlorohydrin has decreased in recent years, with the market mainly on the watch. As of 30 days, the mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin market in Shandong Province is around 14000-14100 yuan / ton, while the mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin market in East China is about 14200-14400 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream DME, it can be seen from the trend chart that the trend of DME in June can be divided into two stages. In the early June, the domestic DME market fell in the first place, and the price was continuously lowered, and the market was improved significantly until the end of June. The first stage is dominated by market profit and vacancy. First, the weak terminal demand is the main factor leading to price reduction. Henan market is mostly affected by the rectification of gas in the province. The downstream wait-and-see mentality is obvious, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the purchasing on demand is maintained, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. Secondly, the trend of methanol market is weak, and the cost drop has brought obvious negative effect on the market. Henan manufacturers have continuously lowered the factory price, and actively shipped. Shandong and Hebei market are affected by Henan, the main production area, followed by the downward adjustment.

The second stage is the last week at the end of the month. The DME market has been significantly positive since the beginning of July 27, with the price continuously high, with the increase of 4.56% on the 4th day. At the end of the month, due to the short-term parking and maintenance of the main manufacturers, the supply reduction has brought obvious boost to the market. The mentality of the manufacturers is strong, the willingness to push up is strong, and the cost of methanol is stable at the end of the month, which is favorable for the market mentality. Some downstream buyers will buy goods under the mentality of rising, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved compared with the previous period, and the DME market rebounds.

Analysis of the trend of the post market

At present, the overall market of dimethyl carbonate is weak, and the off-season of the market is going to occur. At the end of the month, the plant in Anhui will resume and the market supply will continue to resume. Therefore, the analysts of business society think that domestic DMC market has a downward risk in the short term.

1、 Chart of the price trend of nitric acid Market

Price curve of nitric acid

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in domestic areas at the beginning of this week is 2316 yuan / ton, and the average price at weekends is 2350 yuan / ton, up 1.44%.

2、 Market analysis

On July 1, Anhui Jinhe quoted about 2350 yuan / ton, which was the same as the last one; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd., the price of concentrated nitric acid is 2200 yuan / ton, and that of dilute nitric acid is 1150 yuan / ton, and the price of concentrated nitric acid is the same as that of the last time; Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid quoted 2500 yuan / ton, the price was up 100 yuan / ton compared with the last time; Anhui Audley concentrated nitric acid quoted 2350 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton higher than the previous one. Partial source of nitric acid is tight, and shipment is acceptable. The manufacturer raises the quotation. In some areas, the nitrate is generally transported, and the manufacturer’s quotation is stable.

The production price of domestic liquid ammonia in Shandong Province rose 0.38% this week. Aniline downstream, after the price of aniline rose this week, stabilized. On June 25, the price of Shandong Province was 10000-10500 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10000-10300 yuan / ton, and on July 2, the price in Shandong is 10200-10300 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 10300-10500 yuan / ton, with the average price up 0.65% compared with last week. The downstream TDI market price in East China is temporarily stable this week.

3、 Future forecast

The demand for nitric acid market is still acceptable. The analyst of nitric acid in business agency expects that nitric acid will continue to be stronger.