1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the price of caustic soda went up. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong market was about 470 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average price of the market was 490 yuan / ton, up 4.26%, and down 0.51% compared with the same period last year. On May 27, the commodity index of caustic soda was 69.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.44% from 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 6.62% from 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

The price of caustic soda went up this week. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong Province is 460-490 yuan / ton, and the downstream delivery is acceptable. It is expected that caustic soda will still operate in a small fluctuation in the future. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda fluctuates mainly in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 470-610 yuan / ton, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future.

Downstream: due to the low alumina caustic soda inventory in the downstream this week, there was a good demand for caustic soda, which had a positive impact on the market. The delivery of caustic soda was smoother than before, and the price went up.

According to the price monitoring of business community, in the 20th week (5.17-5.21) of 2021, there were 0 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 3 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 0.35%) and PVC (- 0.14%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 0.1%.

Business analysts believe that recently, due to the inventory demand of alumina enterprises in Shandong, this week’s demand for caustic soda is acceptable. But now the overall inventory of caustic soda enterprises is sufficient, and other areas mainly wait and see. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to be consolidated and operated in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

Bisphenol a market in East China continued to decline this week, with a significant decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market negotiation near the weekend was close to 20000 yuan / ton, with a decline of more than 20% this week. The overall performance of bisphenol a market this week was extremely poor. Although the shippers continued to reduce their offers, there were few market inquiries, and the daily market low prices emerged one after another. Rumors of low prices continued to affect the market mentality. In the middle of the week, Changchun chemical reduced 5000 yuan / ton and implemented 22000 yuan / ton, which increased the negative factors. Transaction situation is even worse, the mentality is seriously frustrated, short-term hard to say good.

From the perspective of raw material side, the phenol market was very stable this week, reaching 9350-9400 yuan / ton. The Hong Kong Inventory declined towards the weekend. Although the cargo holders intended to push up the market, the participation in the terminal market was not high, the wait-and-see sentiment increased, and the closing market was weak at the weekend. This week, the acetone market showed an obvious decline. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the acetone factory in East China fell by 15.64%, while the market situation fell by 6.6%. Therefore, the factory adjustment range this week was relatively large, and the market continued the previous decline trend. The offer rebounded slightly near the weekend, and the negotiation range was 5500-5700 yuan / ton.

Acetone market trend in East China

Trend of phenol Market in China

The downstream liquid epoxy resin continued to be in the doldrums, and the weakness was obvious this week. The East China liquid epoxy resin negotiation dropped to 28000-29000 yuan / ton, and the solid epoxy resin negotiation reached 25500 yuan / ton. The decline of epoxy resin market was mainly affected by the overall decline of dual raw materials. The decline of bisphenol A was obvious, the cost support was unfavorable, and the manufacturers were under great pressure to ship, The short-term decline is limited. New orders at the terminal are mostly discussed in a single way, while the factory suspends the offer and mainly discusses the actual orders. The short-term epoxy resin industry is difficult to say good, the market transaction surface is insufficient.

In the view of the business community, on the one hand, due to the depressed terminal demand market, the bearish attitude of the cargo holders is serious. Under the influence of the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the terminal’s wait-and-see mood for raw materials increases. On the other hand, the cost side fell, and after the name of the bulk market, the chemical industry as a whole showed a downward trend, the bad news under the industrial chain was diffuse, and the market mentality was seriously frustrated. The business community expected that the short-term bisphenol a market would continue to decline, and the offer of East China market was about 20000 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic spandex market price showed a slight upward trend since the middle and early May. As of May 27, the average price of 40d specification was 69400 yuan / ton, which was 2.66% higher than that of May 13, with a year-on-year increase of 117.55%. Downstream milk silk, Teflon and other elastic fabrics demand is strong, the market supply continues to be tight, supporting its price up, spandex manufacturers started to maintain a high level of about 90%, some manufacturers said that the inventory is low, new orders are not accepted, mainly for old customers.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 84000-88000 74000-76000 65000-68000

Shandong 86000-89000 75000-77000 65000-68000

Fujian 86000-89000 75000-77000 64000-70000

Jiangsu Province 84000-88000 74000-76000 63000-68000

The supporting function of cost side is general. The raw material PTMEG market has a narrow profit margin, the cost side BDO trend continues to decline, the cost side is bad, and the quotation has a narrow decline. The 1800 molecular weight supply of mainstream factories offers around 41500 yuan / ton, the actual single negotiation reference is 40000-41500 yuan / ton, the industry starts at 780%, and the stable operation is maintained. The pure MDI declined in a narrow range. The market negotiation was around 19600 yuan / ton of telegraphic transfer, which was 200 yuan / ton lower than that in mid May. The overall wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and 80% of the industry started to run at a high level.

Downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving market gradually entered the off-season, new orders are not many, part of the round machine factory production inventory. The off-season market and raw material prices remain high, the gross profit of the industry is constantly compressed, the enthusiasm of production of Da Yuan machine factory is not high, and the start-up rate of most Da Yuan machine factories is 50-60%, maintaining weak stability. Haining area warp knitting factory overall order decline, part of the mainstream factory receivables pressure is big, forced to reduce the operating rate, started around 680%.

Business analysts believe that although the current high start spandex manufacturers, but manufacturers supply is still tight, inventory levels decreased, some manufacturers said that the limited discharge, rising intention is strong. In addition, statistics show that the domestic spandex production capacity is 870000 tons, the monthly output is 67000 tons, a small amount of imports (about 2000-3000 tons of imports per month), a small amount of exports (about 6000-8000 tons of exports per month), and the export quantity is higher than the import quantity, which has a good import and export adjustment mechanism. It is expected that this mechanism will also play a certain role in the price maintenance of spandex in the future. But the current cost side support is insufficient, downstream market on-demand procurement, careful wait-and-see, forming a certain negative. Overall, it is expected that the price of spandex will continue to run at a high level in the short term.

Commodity index: the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 95.14 on May 25, up 0.18 points from yesterday, down 12.72% from 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 12.83% from 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The monitoring found that from May 2021 to now, the market of China’s (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) solid polyaluminum chloride showed a fluctuating upward trend: on the 1st, the domestic mainstream price was 1720 yuan / ton, on the 25th, the mainstream price was 1760 yuan / ton, with an increase rate of 2.33%. Among them, the main influencing factor is the rise of raw material prices.

Industrial chain: upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: business data show that since May, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China has shown a slight upward trend. On the 1st, the mainstream market quotation was about 226.67 yuan / ton. On the 17th, the price of hydrochloric acid mixture in Shandong increased by 6.66 yuan / ton, or 2.94%. After that, the price was temporarily stable. The market of liquid chlorine in the upper reaches is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid. The market of silica and ammonium chloride in the lower reaches is high, which brings certain benefits to the price of hydrochloric acid. At the same time, the recent increase in enterprise maintenance, hydrochloric acid supply is tight, downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. The by-product acid is still impacting the market, and the pressure of hydrochloric acid delivery is greater. Recently, the market price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the average price is about 240 yuan / ton. Calcium powder: according to the manufacturers in the main production area, the price of polyaluminum chloride was generally increased this month due to the rising prices of hydrochloric acid and calcium powder.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. During the Spring Festival in February, Shandong’s civil gas market was phased. The trend before and after the festival was different. Before the festival, the market was mainly weak, and after the festival, the market took a short roller coaster. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend, and the civil gas market in Shandong rose significantly; However, in the middle of March, it began to fall continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market did not continue; From the end of March, the LPG market was dominated by favorable factors and entered the upward channel again. In April, the LPG civil market continued to rise, and the price kept rising, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in late April, the price of liquefied petroleum gas for civilian use showed a “slide” market, and remained stable after a 5-6% drop. Since May, the LPG market has experienced twists and turns, with an overall upward trend; According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on the 5th was 4066.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on the 25th was 4223.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 156.66 yuan / ton. In fact, during the period, the highest price was 4306.67 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 4150 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude was 3.64%.

Downstream demand: the downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride still has little change. The “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” proposed by the two sessions of this year have stricter and long-term sustainability requirements on the environmental protection of production enterprises in various industries. Chemical enterprises have undergone strict environmental inspection, many industries have stopped production from time to time for rectification, and many enterprises need rectification. There should be a certain demand for environmental protection products in terms of environmental protection. Water treatment products are limited due to their application, Compared with atmospheric emissions, the demand for purification products may be slightly lower. According to a number of enterprises, this year’s demand has been average, strict environmental inspection, repeated production stoppage and rectification, enterprises are under great pressure, and small enterprises may be eliminated. So far this month, the production is normal, the inventory is high, and the demand has not changed effectively.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, in the future, under the current situation of general demand and sufficient inventory, the price change of polyaluminum chloride mainly depends on the cost of raw materials. Due to maintenance and other reasons, the supply of raw material manufacturers is tight, and the price has increased, so the subsequent small rise of polyaluminum chloride is still possible.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of isooctanol in Shandong Province dropped from 16700.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 14533.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 12.97%, up 123.59% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of isooctanol fell sharply this week, with the isooctanol commodity index at 106.86 on May 21.

The maintenance was basically completed and the supply began to increase

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong’s mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers fell this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of ISO octanol this weekend was 14500 yuan / ton, down 2200 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the week; Lihuayi quoted 14300 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, down 2300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 14800 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this week, down 2000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. The maintenance of the ISO octanol plant was completed and the production began to resume. The overall operating rate of the ISO octanol industry increased, and the spot supply of ISO octanol increased.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of ISO octanol fell sharply this week. The quoted price dropped from 8334.82 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8034.82 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.60%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.13%. The price of raw materials in the upstream market fell sharply, which was affected by the supply and demand side and had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Isooctanol downstream market, this week DOP factory prices fell slightly. DOP quotation fell from 13575.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13250.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 2.39%, up 88.39% year on year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement was general, and the demand for isooctanol was general.

Oversupply and bearish outlook

In late May, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. On the whole, the production of ISO octanol plant has started recently, and the supply has increased, but the downstream market is poor, the demand is general, and the supply exceeds the demand. As a result, isooctanol analysts from the business community believe that in late May, the domestic market for isooctanol may drop slightly.