Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (September 30): 15366.67 yuan / ton

Analysis points: the domestic NBR market is stable, and the mainstream average price is 15366.67/t. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic NBR market offers are stable, with Lanhua NBR 3308 as the mainstream, Nandi 1052 as the mainstream, and Russia as 2665 as the main market, with the price of RMB 14900-15300 / T, RMB 16400-16800 / T, and RMB 13400-13700 / T, respectively.

The prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile continue to remain high. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic butadiene price is 6288 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of acrylonitrile in Shanghai Secco is 8650 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast: raw materials go up, the market price of NBR is expected to remain high in the short term.

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on September 27 was 36.78, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 63.94% compared with 102.01 point (2014-01-09), and increased by 22.64% compared with the lowest point of 29.99 on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

In September 2020, the hydrogenated benzene market will fluctuate upward. The ex factory price in North China will increase by 6.90% from 3117.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3332.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month.

On August 14, 2020, the price of pure benzene of Qilu Petrochemical (Sinopec North China) will be reduced by 100 yuan / ton, and the price will be 3300 yuan / ton after adjustment. As of September 27, Sinopec’s price has not been adjusted.

It can be seen from the price trend chart of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong Province monitored in the above figure that the price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuated greatly this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of hydrogenated benzene rose due to the upward trend of pure benzene price. The downstream demand of pure benzene in North China was better, and the pure benzene enterprises raised their prices one after another. The price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises rose all the way supported by the price of pure benzene. In addition, the price of crude benzene in the upstream rose Under the influence, manufacturers have strong willingness to stand up. The price of pure benzene is relatively high, the downstream profit is limited, and the psychology of resisting high price is strong. The support glue of basic crude oil price is weak. The price of pure benzene begins to fall, and the hydrobenzene market falls. After that, with the shock and recovery of crude oil, the market mentality has improved, and the price of hydrogenated benzene remains temporarily stable. The crude oil price boosted the pure benzene market, and at the beginning of the middle of the year, the market supply of some hydrogenated benzene enterprises was reduced, which further boosted the market price of hydrogenated benzene. As the end of recent months was approaching the long holiday, the market had a certain demand for stock. The price of hydrogenated benzene was mainly fluctuating, with the mainstream range of about 3100-3150 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream demand, the unit maintenance is basically completed near the end of the month. It is expected that the demand for pure benzene hydrobenzene will increase slightly in the fourth quarter, and some new production capacity will be put into production, which has certain support for hydrobenzene.

Start up of some hydrogenated benzene units in September 2020

Enterprise name device status device capacity remarks

Shandong Shengyun chemical shutdown 100000 tons, restart time to be determined

Derun Chemical Co., Ltd. shut down 150000 tons in February

Shandong Jinneng Chemical Co., Ltd. shut down 100000 tons in July

Hebei Jiantao parking 100000 tons in March

100000 tons parking in Baofeng, Ningxia last week

On the supply side, the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was still large, and some enterprises stopped. However, with the restart of units near the end of the month, some units will start up after the festival. It is expected that the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene will increase slightly after the festival.

In the aftermarket, the business community believed that the preparation of hydrogenated benzene before the festival was basically completed, and the market shock was suck. The crude oil benzene was not strong enough to support the external market. The good support was limited and the market was more emotional.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the price of pure benzene in Shandong Province fell overall this week. On September 20, the listed price of pure benzene was 3130-3450 yuan / ton (the average price was 3390 yuan / ton); this Sunday (September 27), the listed price of pure benzene was 3000-3450 yuan / ton (average price 3400 yuan / ton), an increase of 0.29% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Northern lower reaches of the stock up to a paragraph, this week, Shandong market trading light. Pure benzene enterprise festival inventory, cut prices, this week the market in Shandong weakened again.

In terms of external trading, on Friday (September 25), South Korea imported 419.67 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, down 17 US dollars / ton, or 3.89% compared with September 18; and that of East China was 425 US dollars / ton, down 12 US dollars / ton, or 2.75% compared with September 18.

Crude oil, this week’s high oil prices fell, Libya’s oil fields and port blockade lifted, the market’s concern about excessive supply of crude oil increased. Compared with September 18, Brent fell $1.05 per barrel, or 2.47%, while WTI fell $1.39 per barrel, or 3.36%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 37.93%, and WTI decreased by 34.29%.

Downstream: domestic styrene market is running horizontally. The price of styrene decreased by 50.92 yuan / ton in Shandong on the day of last week.

Before the festival, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is good, enterprise shipment is smooth, inventory is low, and the price goes up. On September 27, the price of aniline in Shandong was 5000-5200 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 5200-5300 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, oil prices are under great pressure. The lifting of the blockade in Libya has wrongly boosted the supply of crude oil market. In addition, public health events continue to affect the market, and the market has become more worried about the supply and demand of crude oil. Oil prices are expected to have downside risks next week.

At present, the demand for pure benzene in the downstream is not strong. In addition, the domestic hydrobenzene shutdown and maintenance devices are gradually restored, which is expected to have an impact on the pure benzene market. It is expected that benzene will maintain weak operation before the festival.

This week, the lead market (9.21-9.25) rose and then fell back. The domestic market average price was 15340 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 15102.5 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly decrease of 1.55%.

On September 26, the lead commodity index was 91.91, flat with yesterday, down 31.42% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 23.15% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

This week, the price of lunlun lead rose and then fell back, fluctuated in the range of 1950-2025 U.S. dollars / ton. Affected by the weakening of US dollar, it rose to the highest point of 2025 US dollars / ton since mid January 2020. Later, affected by the high LME lead inventory, the price went down. Shanghai period tin this week to follow the trend of Lun lead after high, the overall trend is weak, the trend is inferior to the external price.

This week, the domestic spot market price was close to the trend of Shanghai lead, and then fell back. At the beginning of the week, under the influence of the downstream holiday, stock preparation before the festival and the increase of market procurement, the market price rose steadily and the transaction was good. From the following week, with the replenishment coming to the end and the Shanghai lead market falling, the spot lead price fell. In terms of recycled lead, the price of used batteries is firm. Due to the impact of strict environmental inspection, the market supply is relatively small, and the market transaction is limited.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 38 th week (9.21-9.25) of 2020, there are 4 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous plate rising month on month, and the top three commodities are antimony (2.93%), silicon metal (1.61%) and cobalt (0.24%). There were 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the total number of monitored commodities in the plate; the top three products were silver (- 15.67%), zinc (- 4.51%) and gold (- 4.12%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 1.88%. This week, the metal market is mainly downward.

The business agency predicts that there will be only three trading days before the festival next week. As the long holiday approaches, the domestic market atmosphere turns cold, and the price is expected to stabilize temporarily before the festival.

1、 Price trend

 According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8133.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at weekend was 7933.33 yuan / ton. During the week, the price decreased slightly, with the range of 2.46%.

2、 Market analysis

Isopropanol prices fell this week. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed stable on September 22, while the isopropanol market in Europe continued to decline. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 7800-8400 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 7900-8000 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range of 7900-8000 yuan / ton. The quotation of propylene isopropanol is about 8300 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the price of raw material acetone fell this week. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic average price of acetone was 7275 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 6900 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price of acetone dropped during the week by 2.46%. The domestic acetone market is in a weak position, and the manufacturers are under pressure to ship at low prices. The factories just need to replenish before the festival. The overall market operation is relatively stable. The offer of acetone market in East China is 6550-6600 yuan / ton. In terms of propylene, the current market turnover is between 7300-7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7450 yuan / ton. Most propylene manufacturers have controllable inventory.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of chemical branch of business society thinks: the price of raw material acetone drops, and the market price of propylene is stable. The cost support is weak; the price of isopropanol falls in the international aspect, and the export orders of isopropanol decrease. The domestic market demand is light, and traders mainly wait and see. Near the National Day holiday, isopropanol price adjustment space is limited, it is expected that isopropanol price will be stable in the short term.